人口与经济

刘金菊，管理学博士，北京城市学院公共管理学部副教授; 陈卫，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授

经典人口转变理论侧重死亡和生育转变过程的测量、描述和解释,地理学家将迁移转变纳入人口转变框架,以完善人口转变理论。不过与死亡和生育转变研究不同,中国的迁移研究侧重基于对迁移流动人口规模和结构的考察分析,少有采用人口学意义上的迁移率指标的研究。文章利用2010—2015年历次中国综合社会调查的合并数据,通过人口学方法和泊松回归模型,计算和分析了1950—2015年中国人口迁移率趋势及社会经济差异。中国的迁移转变在宏观趋势上与中国的政治经济变迁高度一致。与死亡和生育转变相比,其波折性更强,说明更易受到经济社会政策变化的冲击。同时也观察到逢"0"和逢"5"年份的申报偏好。另外,迁移的社会经济差异明显。男性迁移率高于女性,但是两性差异在不断缩小;乡城迁移和未婚迁移大幅度增长;而越来越多受教育程度较高人群加入迁移,使得受教育程度越高的人群具有越高的迁移率。可以认为基于迁移率的考察揭示了中国迁移转变更具体生动的过程。

While demographic transition theory focuses on describing and explaining mortality and fertility transition，geographer has brought migration into the framework of demographic transition． However，migration studies in demography in China typically examine the size and structure of migrants or floating population，rather than the rate ( level) of migration，which is in sharp contrast with fertility or mortality studies． In this paper，we employ demographic method and Poission model to construct annual migration rate using pooled data from Chinese General Social Surveys to analyze trends and patterns of internal migration in China over 1950－ 2015．Ｒesults demonstrate that trends of annual migration rate are highly consistent with the changing political and economic circumstances in China between 1950 and 2015． Policy changes seem to have larger effects on migration trends than on mortality or fertility trends． Migration heaping is also observed to occur on years ending in 0 or 5． In addition，there are substantial social and economic differentials in migration． Migration patterns by gender，destination，marital status and education also reflect economic and demographic changes undergoing in China． Despite higher rate for males，the gender gap is decreasing．Ｒural to urban and unmarried migration are increasing enormously． And higher education is associated with higher rate of migration． We argue that a migration rate perspective can provide more concrete and vivid picture of the trends of migration transition in China．