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中国中老年人口的主观预期寿命及其社会经济差异
作者: 王记文
单位: 农业农村部 农村经济研究中心, 北京 100810
关键词: 主观预期寿命; 平均预期寿命; 累积劣势
分类号:C913. 6
出版年,卷(期):页码:2021(04):51-66
摘要:
使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2015年数据考察了我国45—89岁人群其主观预期寿命的年龄、性别模式以及社会经济差异。结果发现:我国中老年人口的主观预期寿命随着现有年龄和目标年龄的增加而下降,女性更倾向于低估自己的预期寿命;受教育程度低、农村户籍的人群其主观预期寿命更低;受教育程度和城乡户籍造成的主观预期寿命差异随着年龄的增加逐渐缩小,即越年轻的队列差异越大。基于以上发现,建议国家应在家庭、社区、社会等多个层面积极促进社会经济处境不利人群的福祉,促使其自身境况和主观预期寿命的提高,从而逐渐达到相互促进的效果。

In this study, the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) 2015 is used to investigate the age and sex pattern of subjective life expectancy, and its socio-economic characteristics of Chinese people aged 45-89 years.The results show as follows:1)The subjective life expectancy of the middle-aged and elderly population decreases with the increase of present age and target age, meanwhile, females are more likely to underestimate their life expectancy; 2) People with lower education, and rural household registration have a lower subjective life expectancy; 3) With the increase of age, the difference in subjective life expectancy caused by education level and urban and rural household registration gradually closed, which also means that the younger the cohort, the bigger the difference. Based on the findings above, the paper suggests that the government should actively enhance the well-being of the socio-economic disadvantaged groups at multiple levels, such as family, community society and other levels, to promote the improvement of their own situation and subjective life expectancy, with aim to achieve a virtuous mutual promotion effect.
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金青年项目 “中国老年人口的死亡与余寿研究” (17&CRK004)
作者简介:
王记文, 人口学博士, 农业农村部农村经济研究中心工作人员
参考文献:

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