To evaluate the effect of China’s two-child policy, we need appropriate indicators, standards and reference. Different from the previous methods based on macro indicators and before-after comparison, considering the different historical background of fertility policy between urban and rural areas, this paper puts forward a new method of using urban-rural comparison based on the methods of natural experiments, and uses statistical data and China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2010 to 2018 to evaluate the effect of fertility policy. The results show that whether the total fertility rate of the second child in urban areas or the proportion of the second child in families with one child increases, or the gap of the second child in urban and rural areas narrows, it is proved that the adjustment of fertility policy has played a short-term effect. However, the long-term effect of the adjustment of the birth policy is not optimistic. The second-birth rate for urban household registered residence is still relatively low, and there is a downward risk in their fertility intention. What’s more, the cohort analysis found that the age of women’s first marriage continued to delay, while the proportion of those born in the 1990s and 2000s who prefer not to have children ( the ideal number of children is zero) has increased. This indicates that the foundation for the long-term effect of the two-child policy is very weak. In order to optimize the fertility policy and further improve the relevant supporting measures, we must deeply recognize the changes in the attitudes of marriage and childbirth of the new generation of women.
