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中国老龄社会新形态的特征、影响及其应对策略——基于 “七普”数据的解读
作者: 陆杰华,刘 芹
单位: 北京大学 社会学系,北京 100871
关键词: 人口老龄化; 新形态; “七普”; 应对策略
分类号:C913. 6
出版年,卷(期):页码:2021(05):13-24
摘要:
“七普”数据显示,受育龄妇女规模缩小、生育水平持续走低因素长期累积的影响,我国人口老龄化程度进一步加深,中国即将进入中度老龄化社会,老龄社会新形态的格局已经形成且不可逆转。基于 “七普”数据对老龄社会新形态下的人口老龄化新特征进行勾画,并讨论在此新形态下老龄化带来的多重影响及应对方略,为更加深入认识及积极应对人口老龄化提供参考。分析表明,老龄社会新形态下人口老龄化新特征表现为人口老龄化增长态势更加快速、地区差异更加明显以及省际差异更加多样,同时还需动态认识我国人口老龄化的未来发展趋势。人口老龄化给社会带来的机遇主要在于老年人口年龄结构低龄化所带来的二次人口红利,但也在宏观、中观和微观三个层次上带来了多重影响和挑战。未来应该从理念适老化、政策一体化、区域平衡化、和治理多元化这四个方面入手,充分利用回旋空间,抓住多样红利,规避人口老龄化的风险并充分把握机遇。

According to the data of the Seventh Census,the aging of China’s population has been further deepened by the long-term accumulation of factors such as the reduction of the size of women of childbearing age and the continuous decline of the fertility level.China’s society is about to enter a moderate aging,and the new pattern of the aging society has been formed and irreversible. Based on the data of the Seventh Census,this paper outlines the new characteristics of population aging in the new form of aging society,and discusses the multiple impacts and coping strategies brought by aging in this new form,so as to provide reference for further understanding and positive coping with population aging in the new form of aging society.The analysis shows that the new characteristics of population aging under the new form of aging society are more rapid growth trend, more obvious regional differences and more diverse inter-provincial differences. At the same time,it is necessary to dynamically understand the future development trend of population aging in China. The opportunities brought by population aging to the society mainly lie in the secondary demographic dividend brought by the younger age structure of the elderly,but it also brings multiple influences and challenge sat the macro,meso and micro levels. To deal with the aging problem,we should start from four aspects: policy integration,regional balance,aging concept and governance diversification.We should make full use of the room for maneuver,seize the various dividends,avoid the risk of population aging and fully grasp the opportunities.
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金重大项目 “实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”( 21ZDA106)
作者简介:
陆杰华,北京大学中国社会与发展研究中心研究员、社会学系教授; 刘芹,北京大学社会学系博士研究生
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