设为首页 | 加入收藏
首页 2025年06月26日 星期四
 



您当前的位置: 首页» 电子期刊
中国人口流动与城镇化新动向的考察——基于第七次人口普查公布数据的初步解读
作者: 王桂新
单位: 复旦大学 人口研究所/城市与区域发展研究中心,上海 200433
关键词: 人口迁移; 人口城市化; “半城市化”; 区域模式; 新动向
分类号:C921
出版年,卷(期):页码:2021(05):36-55
摘要:
主要根据2020年第七次全国人口普查目前公布数据,初步考察了2000年以来中国人口流动与城镇化的新动向。发现2010年以来特别是“十三五”期间新型城镇化战略等一系列国家战略的密集推出,强劲地推动了中国人口流动的“爆发性”增长和城镇化的快速发展;人口流动的“爆发性”增长以近距离人口流动的增长为主,人口城镇化的快速发展以行政区划变更形成的“就地”城镇化和近距离人口流动带来的“就近”城镇化为主要形态;主要受“第一自然”、“第二自然”以及受其影响的区域经济发展差异等因素的综合作用,中西部欠发达地区人口主要向东部发达地区迁移、农村人口主要向城市迁移,以及各省流入人口规模与流入强度“大者恒大”、“强者恒强”的区域模式都基本保持稳定;人口流动更加向城市集中,乡城人口迁移进一步增强,中国的人口城镇化仍处于乡城人口迁移发挥重要作用的快速发展阶段。最后,对国家统计局进行的本次数据调整及新近人口流动和城镇化产生的问题进行了探讨。

Based on recently released data of the seventh national census in 2020,the study preliminarily investigates the new trends in migration and urbanization in China since 2000.First,the launch of a series of national strategies since 2010, especially the New-type Urbanization Policy during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,has given a strong impetus to the explosive growth of internal migrants and rapid development of urbanization.Second,the explosion of migrant has been driven by the growth of short-distance migrants. The growth of urban population has been characterized by in-situurbanization and nearby urbanization: the former results from the adjustment of administrative divisions, and the latter is led by short-distance migration.Third,largely influenced by the combined effects of the“first nature”factors,“second nature”factors,and the disparities in levels of regional economic development,the spatial patterns of migration remain stable over time: the population of the underdeveloped central-western areas has been primarily migrating to developed eastern-coastal areas,and the rural population has been mainly migrating to urban areas. The size and intensity of population inflow at the provincial level also present that the bigger ones remain bigger and the stronger ones remains the stronger.Moreover,migrants have been more concentrated in urban areas,and rural-urbanmigration has further increased.Rural-urban migration remains the major factor driving urbanization in contemporary China. In conclusion , the study discusses data adjustment made by the National Bureau of Statistics and the problems arising from the recent trends in migration and urbanization.
基金项目:
研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目 “我国以人为核心的新型城镇化机制及推进战略研究”( 21ZDA067)
作者简介:
王桂新,复旦大学人口研究所教授、城市与区域发展研究中心主任
参考文献:

欢迎阅读《人口与经济》,您是本文的第151位浏览者。

版权所有:《人口与经济》编辑部
技术支持:北京通元动力软件技术有限责任公司