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中国三大城市群流动人口集聚的空间格局与机制
作者: 盛亦男, 杨旭宇
单位: 首都经济贸易大学 劳动经济学院/ 人口经济研究所, 北京 100070
关键词: 流动人口; 城市群; 空间集聚; 人口空间格局
分类号:C922
出版年,卷(期):页码:2021(06):88-107
摘要:
利用重心模型、社会网络分析与空间滞后模型等方法,分析京津冀、长三角、珠三角城市群流动人口集聚的空间格局与影响机制。研究发现,三大城市群流动人口规模持续增长,但流动人口规模和密度的增长速度均有所放缓;流动人口重心向经济发达与人口高度集聚城市移动,与常住人口重心逐渐接近;京津冀、长三角与珠三角城市群流动人口的社会网络日益密集,内部结构分别呈双核分布稳定的星状网络、多中心发散网络与中心—外围层次结构明显的空间格局。影响机制研究发现,高房价水平、环境污染弱化了经济因素对京津冀流动人口集聚的吸引力,较高的公共服务能力与开放水平则分别促进流动人口持续向长三角、珠三角集聚。研究结论可以为不同城市群制定科学的发展规划、优化人口布局提供政策建议。

Using methods such as the center of gravity model, the social network analysis and the spatial lag model, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and the influencing mechanism of floating population agglomeration in three city clusters: Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta region and Pearl River Delta. Our findings suggest that the scale of floating population in the three major city clusters continued to grow, but the growth rate of both the size and density of the floating population has slowed down. In addition, we find that the gravity center of the floating population moved to economically developed and highly populated cities, and approached the gravity center of permanent resident population gradually. The social network structure of three city clusters is increasingly dense, representing as a spatial pattern of the star-shaped, multi-center divergent and center-peripheral hierarchical structure network, respectively. The influencing mechanism results show that high housing price and environmental pollution have weakened the attractiveness of economic factors to the floating population agglomeration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while higher public service and opening-up have attracted the floating population to continue to flow into the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, respectively. The results provide policy suggestions for different urban clusters to make scientific development plans and optimize population distribution.
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金重大项目 “中国主要城市群人口集聚与空间格局优化研究” (18ZDA131)
作者简介:
盛亦男, 经济学博士, 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院/ 人口经济研究所副教授; 杨旭宇, 首都经济贸易大学 劳动经济学院/ 人口经济研究所硕士研究生
参考文献:

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