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生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势
作者: 丁金宏, 耿文均,毛仁俊, 程晨
单位: 华东师范大学 人口研究所, 上海 200241
关键词: 生育率演变; 替代生育率; 人口容量; 生态学逻辑; 人口惯性
分类号:C92-05
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(01):26-41
摘要:
人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题, 将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员, 按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型, 以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路, 探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来, 全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、 第二次生育率转变, 全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、 亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式; 在计划生育政策的推动下, 我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。 极限替代生育率是生育率演变的 长期目标, 但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平, 这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历, 预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化; 世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近 其容量极限, 并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制, 达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人 口容量, 同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。 按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为 65 亿人和 12 亿人。 研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指 标———人口增长惯性系数, 它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比, 相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。

Healthy life expectancy is an important indicator that reflects the healthy and longevity of the population simultaneously. The difference of healthy life expectancy can reflect the inequality of health in a country or region. This article uses a multi-state life table to analyze the trends and changes in the healthy life expectancy of elderly population in China in the past ten years; meanwhile, it calculates the impact of 11 types of factors such as social factors on the difference of the healthy life expectancy of the elderly through the sharpley value decomposition method. The following four important research conclusions are obtained: Firstly, from 2005 to 2018, the degree of difference in the healthy life expectancy of the elderly people in China has increased slightly, with women and rural groups always having higher levels of dificency. Further Theil index decomposition shows that intra-group inequality (rather than inter-group inequality) is the main cause of the above difference. The gender difference in the healthy life expectancy of the elderly population shows a trend of shrinking older people and expanding younger ones. Secondly, marital status is the most important factor influencing changes in healthy life expectancy, but which shows a downward trend year by year. On the contrary, the impact of education level is increasing yearly. After further categorizing 11 types of influencing factors, it is found that “individual characteristics” are the most important factors, followed by “economic factors” and “behavioral factors”, then “environmental factors” have the least impact. Thirdly, the impact of above factors on the healthy life expectancy of the elderly in China shows an upward trend generally, and the characteristics still exist when divided by the urban and rural areas and gender. Finally, the influence of various factors in groups of different urban & rural areas, genders, and marital status are heterogeneous.
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金重大项目 “胡焕庸线稳定性与中国人口均衡发展战略研究” (18ZDA132)。
作者简介:
丁金宏, 华东师范大学人口研究所所长、 教授, 博士生导师; 耿文均, 华东师范大学人口研究所博士研究生;毛仁俊, 华东师范大学人口研究所硕士研究生; 程晨, 华东师范大学人口研究所博士研究生。
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