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延迟退休对职工效用最大化的影响 ——基于 “S” 型效用函数的分析
作者: 段欣言, 高建伟, 李淑清
单位: 华北电力大学 经济与管理学院, 北京 102206
关键词: 延迟退休; 个体效用; 养老金财富; “S” 型效用函数; 数值模拟
分类号:F840. 67
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(01):106-156
摘要:
健康预期寿命是反映人群健康长寿的重要指标, 健康预期寿命差异反映了一个国家或地区的健康不平等状况。利用多状态生命表分析了中国老年人口健康预 期寿命在过去十余年间的趋势与变动, 并通过夏普利值分解法测算了人口社会学等 11 类因素对老年人口健康预期寿命差异的具体贡献值。 得到以下四项重要研究结 论: 第一, 从 2005 年到 2018 年, 中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的程度略有增 加, 女性、 农村群体相比对应群体差距始终较高; 泰尔指数分解发现, 组内不平等 (而非组间不平等) 是造成上述差异的主要原因; 老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差 异呈现出高龄老人缩小而低龄老人扩大的趋势。 第二, 婚姻状况是健康预期寿命变 动最重要的影响因素, 但影响程度呈现逐年下降趋势, 反之, 受教育程度的影响在 逐年上升; 进一步将 11 类影响因素归类后发现: “个体特征” 是最重要的影响因素, “ 经济因素” 和 “行为因素” 的重要性次之,三, 上述影响因素对中国老年人口健康预期寿命的影响总体呈上升趋势, 分城乡、分性别后依然呈现出相同的特征。 最后, 各因素在不同城乡、性别、婚姻状态的群体中的影响存在异质性。

The “Fourteenth Five-Year-Plan” proposes to “implement the gradual deferment of the legal retirement age”. How to make the policy of deferring retirement widely accepted by the public is the key issue in the process of China’s endowment insurance system reform. Based on the theory of individual utility maximization, combined with China’s current endowment insurance system and S-type utility function in prospect value function, this paper constructs a comprehensive utility model associated with wage income, insurance payment, pension wealth and leisure, and determines the retirement age to maximize individual utility from the aspects of gender, leisure preference, wage income level, interest rate, insurance age and individual contribution rate of endowment insurance. Then it puts forward targeted suggestions on the policy of deferring retirement in combination with China’s current national conditions. The results show that the individual utility function under different retirement ages is a curve about retirement age, which first rises sharply and then decreases slowly. Male employees get the maximum utility when they retire at the age of 63, while female employees get the maximum utility when they retire at the age of 60. Meanwhile, the optimal retirement age of the insured and the insured does not change with the change of wage income level, which only affects the absolute value of utility obtained by insured workers. The higher the wage income level, the greater the utility value obtained by insured employees. In addition, the lower leisure preference, lower interest rate, older the insured age and lower the individual contribution rate of endowment insurance can result in the older the optimal retirement age of insured employees. In general, in the implementation of gradual retirement policy, only by considering gender factors, giving appropriate flexible operation space to the delayed retirement policy, improving the pension insurance payment method and creating a better employment environment for the elderly can make policy implication better.
基金项目:
中国博士后科学基金第69批面上资助项目 “中国老年人口无认知损伤预期寿命变动特征及影响因素研究”(2021M690215); 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目 “中国老年人健康预期寿命的多状态模型研究”( 20YJC840023) 。
作者简介:
段欣言, 华北电力大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生; 高建伟 (通讯作者), 华北电力大学经济与管理学院教授, 博士生导师; 李淑清, 华北电力大学经济与管理学院副教授。
参考文献:

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