设为首页 | 加入收藏
首页 2025年07月08日 星期二
 



您当前的位置: 首页» 电子期刊
超大城市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展水平研究 ——基于 Laplace 混合政策模拟
作者: 曾雪婷, 薛 勇
单位: 首都经济贸易大学 劳动经济学院, 北京 100070
关键词: 政策干预; 人口—自然资源系统; 可持续性; 混合政策模拟; Laplace 准则
分类号:C922
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(01):121-139
摘要:
人口增长与集聚为超大城市的发展提供动力, 也给其自然资源系统带来极 大扰动, 使之呈现脆弱性特征; 为实现超大城市人口—自然资源可持续发展, 近年 来政府实施了大量调控政策, 但因对城市人口—自然资源系统的复杂互动难以精确 量化, 导致超大城市人口与自然资源关系治理困难重重。 基于此, 以北京市为例构 建人口—自然资源系统可持续性评价框架, 从政策干预视角, 分析不同类型调控政 策 (如人口调控、 技术改进、 资源管制等) 与人口、 自然资源的因果关系, 并利 用 Laplace 准则结合决策者风险喜好, 模拟混合政策干预对人口—自然资源系统可 持续性带来的影响。 结果显示: 政策干预是保证北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续 发展的重要手段, 其中, 人口调控政策是北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续性变动 的主要影响因素, 资源管制和技术改进是次要影响因素; 随着政策干预强度的增 加, 由于人口系统安全性和自然资源系统脆弱性的互动博弈, 北京市人口—自然资 源可持续性逐渐趋于稳定; 在 Laplace 情景下, 人口安全性减弱了 1. 82%, 损失不 大; 而自然资源脆弱性减弱了 12. 13%, 收益较高; 最终使得人口—自然资源系统 可持续性增强了 6. 23%。 因此, 对于超大城市的政策干预需要综合考虑人口安全性以及自然资源脆弱性, 不能顾此失彼, 从而最大化人口—自然资源系统收益。

Population growth and agglomeration have provided an impetus for urban development, but which have brought great disturbance to the natural resource system, leading it to show the characteristics of vulnerability. In order to achieve sustainable development of population-natural resources, the government has implemented numbers of regulations and control policies in recent years. However, complex policies and their interactions on urban population-natural resource system are difficult to quantify in an accurate manner, which would increase the difficulty of balancing the relationship between urban population and natural resources. Therefore, this paper constructs a framework for evaluating the sustainability of population-natural resource system in Beijing. From the perspective of policy interventions, it analyzes the causal relationship between different types of regulatory policies ( such as population regulation, technical improvement, and resource control, etc. ) and population-natural resources. Meanwhile, it combined with the use of the Laplace criterion and the risk preferences of decision makers, to simulate the impact of mixed policy intervention on the sustainability of the population-natural resource system. The results show that: 1) Policy intervention is an important means to ensure the sustainable development of Beijing’s population-natural resources system. Population control policies are the main influencing factors for the change of Beijing’s population-natural resource system sustainability, while resource control and technological improvement are secondary factors; 2) As the intensity of policy interventions enhances, the sustainable level of population-natural resource in Beijing has gradually stabilized based on tradeoff between population system security and natural resource system fragility; 3) In Laplace scenario, population security decreased by 1. 82%, with a small loss. The vulnera- bility of natural resources decreased by 12. 13%, and the income was higher. Finally, the sustainability of the population-natural resource system was enhanced by 6. 23%. Therefore, policy intervention needs to take population security and natural resource vulnerability into consideration, rather than taking advantage of one and the other, so as to maximize the benefits of the popula- tion-natural resource system.
基金项目:
北京市哲学社会科学基金重大项目 “新时代北京人口调控与城市可持续发展” (18ZDA06)。
作者简介:
曾雪婷, 工学博士, 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院教授, 博士生导师; 薛勇, 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济
学院博士研究生。
参考文献:

欢迎阅读《人口与经济》,您是本文的第74位浏览者。

版权所有:《人口与经济》编辑部
技术支持:北京通元动力软件技术有限责任公司