In the context of volume reduction development, scientific prediction of the trend of labor supply and demand in Beijing from 2021 to 2035 is of great significance to the realization of Beijing’ s “14th Five-Year Plan” and the 2035 Long-term Goal. The study found that if the current annual net immigration volume of the Beijing registered population and the scale of the floating population are maintained, that is, under the baseline forecasting scheme, even under the assumption that the labor participation rate is gradually increasing, the quality of the labor force is gradually improved, and the elasticity of employment demand continues to decrease, the labor supply will continue to decline. Under the high plan to increase the net household registered migrants and the scale of the floating population, the labor supply has increased, but the demand is still not fully satisfied. At the same time, regardless of whether it is the benchmark plan or the high plan, from 2021-2035, the labor force of the 25-44-year-old “golden” age group will be still decline, while the 45- 64 -year-old labor force will increase significantly. Structure contradictions of the labor market will intensify. On this basis, this article explores the path to achieve the balance of labor supply and demand, and finds that increasing the labor participation rate of the 45- 64 age group is the most effective way to increase labor supply, while increasing labor productivity is an effective way to reduce labor demand. Finally, this article puts forward policy recommendations from both the supply and demand sides. In terms of supply, we need to promote the labor participation rate of both the older working-age population and female population, to boost the labor supply scale; at the same time, we need to invest more in education and vocational training for improving labor quality and comprehensively enhancing labor supply efficiency. In terms of demand, we need to stimulate technological progress and the transformation of economic growth patterns to reduce employment elasticity, shorten labor demand, and finally, promote the balance of labor supply and demand.
