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人口视角下中国城市收缩的演变特征 与时空格局 ———基于第七次全国人口普查公报数据的分析
作者: 宫 攀, 张 槊, 王文哲
单位: 青岛科技大学 经济与管理学院, 山东 青岛 266061
关键词: 第七次全国人口普查; 城市收缩; Dagum基尼系数; 标准差椭圆
分类号:C922
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(03):1-15
摘要:
人口是城市发展的关键要素, 人口规模的变化及其结构特征关系到城市的兴衰。以近三次人口普查数据识别收缩型城市, 揭示其人口结构特征, 并利用Dagum 基尼系数、 标准差椭圆等方法分析我国 “七普” 期间城市收缩时空演化的新趋势、新格局与新特点。研究发现: 城市收缩与城镇化快速发展并存, 且收缩型城市呈现出更加明显的老龄化和劳动年龄人口短缺趋势, 收缩型城市的人口问题与异地城镇化问题交织, 制约其进一步发展; 我国人口收缩型城市数量增多且收缩强度增加, 收缩区域呈现扩散态势, 城市收缩重心与人口分布重心偏移趋势相异; 城市收缩在向外扩散的同时在空间上还具有集聚特征, 同时区域间的人口分布差异在一定程度上揭示了人口收缩型城市呈蔓延式扩散的内在动因。 基于以上, 文章认为: 收缩型城市需 “开源” 与 “节流” 双策并施, 从要素积累的增长模式转向以改善经济效率为主的经济增长方式, 提高经济增长质量, 同时完善社会保障与养老服务体系, 抑制人才流失, 通过兜底性保障政策缓解老龄化带来的社会负担过重问题; 面对收缩型城市的扩散趋势以及人口越发集聚的分布趋势, 可以通过做大做强都市圈实现抑制城市收缩现象的蔓延和人口的过度集聚; 区域均衡发展是缓解城市收缩蔓延趋势的一项长期工作。

Since population is the key factor of urban development, the change of population
scale and its structural characteristics are related to the rise and fall of a city. In this paper, shrinking cities have been identified based on the data of the last three censuses, which reveals their demographic characteristics. Meanwhile, the new trends, patterns and characteristics of the spatio-temporal evolution of urban contraction during the seventh general population period in China by using Dagum Gini coefficient and standard deviation ellipse. The results show that: 1) The rapid development of urbanization and urban shrinkage coexist, and the shrinking cities show a more obvious trend of aging and shortage of working-age population. The population problems of the shrinking cities are intertwined with the urbanization problems of other cities, which restrict their further development. 2) The number and intensity of population shrinking cities in China increased, and the
shrinking regions showed a trend of diffusion. The trend of urban shrinking center of gravity was different from that of population distribution center of gravity shift. 3) The urban contraction has the characteristics of agglomeration in space as well as outward diffusion, and the differences of regional population distribution reveal the internal motivation of urban sprawl diffusion with shrinking population to a certain extent. This paper argues that: 1) The deflating the city could apply “open source” and “throttling” dual tactics, which should transfer economic development manner from element accumulated growth to efficiency improvement. As the main way of promoting the quality of economic growth, meanwhile, it should improve social security and pension service system at the same time that curb brain drain, and alleviate the problems of excessive social burden caused by the aging population through a bottom-line guarantee policy. 2) In the face of the diffusion trend of shrinking cities and the distribution trend of more and more concentrated population, we can restrain the spread of urban contraction and excessive concentration population, by making metropolitan areas bigger and stronger. 3) Balanced regional development is a long-term
work to alleviate the trend of urban contraction and spread.
基金项目:
教育部人文社科规划基金项目 “基于经济梯度推移的城市蔓延时空特征及演变机理研究” (19YJAZH020)。
作者简介:
宫攀, 管理学博士, 青岛科技大学经济与管理学院副教授; 张槊 (通讯作者), 青岛科技大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生; 王文哲, 青岛科技大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生。
参考文献:

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