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主观预期寿命研究的回顾与展望
作者: 俞钰凡, 王玲云
单位: 武汉轻工大学 管理学院, 湖北 武汉 430048
关键词: 主观预期寿命; 测量; 影响因素; 决策行为
分类号:C913. 6
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(04):61-77
摘要:
主观预期寿命不同于人口平均预期寿命, 是指个人预期自己可能会活到的年龄, 是对个体所感知的剩余寿命的量化。 国内关于预期寿命的研究多集中于平均预期寿命, 而对主观预期寿命关注较少。 人口平均预期寿命在国家宏观政策的制度中发挥重要作用, 而主观预期寿命在微观层面对个体决策和行为的影响也不容忽视。 通过对国内外相关文献的回顾, 全面梳理了有关主观预期寿命研究的三个重要内容: 第一, 阐释主观预期寿命的概念、 特征和测量方法, 总结出了主观预期寿命的重要特征———差异性、 不稳定性和可干预性, 概述了现有研究在数据类型和来源上的特征, 并说明其研究过程中可能存在的诸多问题, 对未来相关研究的设计能够科学合理、 减少偏差有重要参考意义; 第二, 归纳出主观预期寿命的五大影响因素, 包括个人/ 遗传因素、 健康行为因素、 经济因素、 心理因素和文化因素; 第三,讨论了主观预期寿命的三大研究领域, 包括健康与医疗卫生领域、 退休与养老领域和经济与消费领域的重要研究内容。 基于对相关文献的梳理, 在指出现有研究不足
之处的同时, 提出未来研究可进一步探索的六个方向, 为扩展国内对主观预期寿命的探索及其在人口学、 社会学和管理学等领域的研究提供了借鉴和启示。

Subjective life expectancy, different from the average life expectancy of the population, refers to the age that an individual is likely to live, which is a quantification of an individual’s perceived remaining life. Domestic researches on life expectancy mostly have focused on average life expectancy, but have paid little attention to subjective life expectancy. The average life expectancy plays an important role in the national macro policy system, while the impact of subjective life expectancy on individual decision-making and behavior in the micro level cannot be ignored. Based on the review of relevant domestic and foreign literature, three important aspects of subjective life expectancy research are
comprehensively sorted out: Firstly, it explains the concept, characteristics and measurement methods of subjective life expectancy, summarizes the important characteristics of subjective life expectancy———difference, instability and intervenability, summarizes the characteristics of existing research in data types and sources, and explains the many problems that may exist in their research process. It has important reference significance for
the design of future related research to be scientific and reasonable and reduce the deviation. Secondly, there are five important factors influencing subjective life expectancy, including
personal / genetic factors, health behavior factors, economic factors, psychological factors and cultural factors. Thirdly, the research field of subjective life expectancy is discussed, and the important research contents of subjective life expectancy in the fields of health and medical care, retirement and old-age care, and economy and consumption are discussed. Based on reviewing the related literature, at the same time of pointing out the deficiencies in
the existing research, six directions are proposed for exploration in further research, which can provide references for expanding the relevant exploration of subjective life expectancy in China and its research in the fields of demography, sociology and management, and bring
enlightenment for all areas of practice.
基金项目:
作者简介:
俞钰凡, 管理学博士, 武汉轻工大学管理学院副教授; 王玲云, 武汉轻工大学管理学院硕士研究生。
参考文献:

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