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中国持续多维相对贫困的统计测度及其结果比较
作者: 周迪,邱文妍,冯怡豪
单位: 广东外语外贸大学 数学与统计学院, 广东 广州 511400
关键词: 持续多维相对贫困指数; 相对贫困; A-F 双临界值法; 结构分解
分类号:F124.3
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(06):113-129
摘要:
随着 “后扶贫时代” 的到来, 相对贫困在我国扶贫工作中的战略定位逐步凸显, 但现阶段仍缺乏统一的相对贫困指数来识别相对贫困家庭以及衡量相对贫困水平。 基于改进的 A-F 双临界值法和福斯特的持续思想, 通过设定各指标的相对贫困阈值, 构建持续多维相对贫困指数并验证其满足的系列公理化条件, 进而利用 2010—2018 年中国家庭追踪调查 (CFPS) 五期数据, 从整体、城乡、区域和省份四个层面实证分析中国持续多维相对贫困状况。研究发现: 中国持续多维相对贫困家庭比例随着持续时间临界值的增加逐渐降低, 致贫因素也更加集中。2010—2018 年多维相对贫困指数降低了 7. 15%, 相对贫困家庭占比逐渐降低, 中国扶贫工作成效明显, 但就处于相对贫困的家庭而言, 其相对贫困程度仍较高。 医疗保险、教育与住房仍然是中国重要的致贫因素, 城市家庭的健康状况和农村的住房问题对持续多维相对贫困指数产生较大影响。城乡以及区域间的贫困差距仍较明显, 但更多的是体现在贫困发生率差距上, 贫困家庭的相对贫困深度较为相近。我国西部持续多维相对贫困指数远高于中东部地区, 但中东部地区内贫困家庭的相对贫困程度更严重。研究为我国相对贫困治理工作的开展提供了重要的统计支持, 对我国建立解决相对贫困的长效机制具有重要意义。

With the advent of the “post-poverty alleviation era”, the strategic positioning of relative poverty in China’s poverty alleviation work has been gradually highlighted, but there is still a lack of unified relative poverty index to identify the relative poverty households and
measure the relative poverty level. Therefore, based on the improved A-F double-bound
method and Foster’s persistence idea, this paper constructed a continuous multidimensional relative poverty index by setting the relative poverty threshold of each indicator and verifying a series of axiomatization conditions it met. Then, using the five-year CFPS data from 2010 to 2018, this paper empirically analyzes the multidimensional relative poverty situation in
China from the overall, urban and rural, regional and provincial levels. The findings are as follows: 1) The proportion of households with persistent multidimensional relative poverty in China gradually decreases with the increase of the critical value of duration, and the impoverishment factors become more concentrated. 2) The multidimensional relative poverty index decreased by 7. 15% from 2010 to 2018, and the proportion of relatively poor
households gradually decreased. China’ s continuous poverty alleviation work has achieved obvious results, but the relative poverty degree of households still in relative poverty is still relatively high. 3) Medical insurance, education and housing are still important factors contributing to poverty in China. Meanwhile, the health status of urban households and the housing problem in rural areas have a greater impact on the persistent multidimensional
relative poverty index. 4) The poverty gap between urban and rural areas as well as between regions is still more obvious, but it is more reflected in the poverty incidence gap, and the
relative poverty depth of poor households is more similar. 5 ) The continuous multidimensional relative poverty index in the western part of China is much higher than that in the central and eastern regions, but the relative poverty degree of poor households in the central and eastern regions is more serious. This paper provides important statistical support for the development of China ’ s relative poverty governance work, and it is of great significance to establish a long-term mechanism to solve relative poverty in China.
基金项目:
国家统计局全国统计科学研究项目 “中国相对贫困水平及治理成效的统计测度研究” (2020LY101)。
作者简介:
周迪, 广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院副教授; 邱文妍, 广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院本科生; 冯怡豪, 广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院本科生。
参考文献:

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