In the context of rural revitalization strategy, re-examining the changing trend of the rural labor force population and the population structure from 2021 to 2050 is conducive to grasping the rural labor force population resources of China’s economic development from a macro perspective and promoting the strategic deployment of rural revitalization accurately. Based on the “Seventh Census” data and the relevant population data of the past years, this paper sets the fertility level parameters based on the fertility rate by childbirth rate and the fertility model experience of developing countries summarized by the United Nations. The rural population migration rate parameter were set with the change model of urbanization rate in different periods, which can simulate the migration pattern of the rural population with the migration data by migration cause, and then using the classic cohort-based population forecasting method to predict the size, age structure and gender structure of the rural labor force. The forecast results show that: the scale of the rural labor force population continues to decline to 204 million in 2035 and 120 million in 2050 respectively, and there is still a surplus of rural labor. The age structure of labor force is unbalanced, which will face intermittent age faults. The gender structure of labor force is seriously unbalanced, with 19. 1 million passively unmarried people by 2035, which cannot be effectively alleviated over time. The dependency burden of labor force continues to increase, but there is still a strategic opportunity period to deal with rural aging from 2022 to 2028. Therefore, in the process of implementing the rural revitalization strategy, it is not only necessary to deal with the contradiction between the overall flow of surplus rural labor to cities and the age gap of rural labor force population in part, smoothing the channels for the two-way flow of the labor force, but also pay attention to the social problems that may be caused by the marriage squeeze of rural men, and seize the strategic opportunity period from 2022 to 2028 with aim to build an institutional foundation to solve the excessive dependency burden of rural labor force.
