人口与经济

家庭养老财务转移代际回报研究

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作者：张骐 ¹, 李廷豪 ²

单位： 1. 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院, 北京 100070;
2. 纽约大学工学院, 纽约 11201-3840

关键词：家庭养老;代际回报;回报强度;转移动机;财务转移

分类号：D632.1

出版年,卷(期):页码：2015,36(2):98-107

摘要：

针对财务转移回报动机与强度探究家庭养老的有效性。利用2011年CHARLS全国基线调查数据, 计算子女给予父母的财务转移, 以子女的教育程度和父母赠与的婚嫁礼物衡量父母早期付出, 在交换动机的前提下, 探究代际转移"回报契约"的回报强度;并通过控制父母目前健康状况, 探讨子女的回报是否存在利他因素。本文建立Tobit II型(ET2T)模型, 使用海克曼(Heckman)两步法进行回归, 结果表明, 家庭养老的水平不高, 父母月均收到200元, "回报契约"的强度不高、子女回报的利他因素较小, 故从财务回报角度上, 本文认为现今家庭养老的保障作用有限。另外, 在财务转移概率和数量上, 儿子均大于女儿;农村子女给予概率更大, 但数量更少;子女数量的增加不会减少财务的给予概率和数量:也就是说家庭养老的水平与子女数量成正比。

This paper aims at motivation and strength of financial transfers return to explore the validity of family pension. Using 2011 CHARLS baseline data, we calculate the financial return from children and parents early payment which is measured by children's education and marriage gift received from parents. Under the exchanging motivation, we explore strength of intergenerational transfer "return contract"; and we explore whether there is altruism factor in children return by controlling the current health status of the parents. This paper establishes a Tobit type II (ET2T) model, using Heckman two-step method, the results show that the family pension is in low amount, the parents receive 200 Yuan monthly in average, and the intensity of the "return contract" is not high, the altruistic factor of children return isn't significant. Therefore, from the view of financial return, the family pension plays a limited role in pension. In addition, the financial transfer's probability and amounts of sons are more than daughters; rural have large probability of family pension, but fewer amounts; children number's increase don't reduce the probability and amount of financial transfer:that is to say family pension level is proportional to the children number.

基金项目：

首都社会建设与社会管理协同创新中心项目

作者简介：

张骐, 北京大学经济学双学士, 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院硕士研究生;李廷豪, 北京大学经济学双学士, 纽约大学工学院硕士研究生。

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