人口与经济

集聚效应、人口流动与城市增长

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作者：杜旻¹, 刘长全²

单位： 1. 中国人口与发展研究中心, 北京 100081;
2. 中国社会科学院农村发展研究所, 北京 100732

关键词：集聚效应;城市增长;新经济地理;技术外部性;货币外部性

分类号：F240

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(6):44-56

摘要：

认识驱动城市增长的经济力量是发挥市场在城镇化与城镇体系优化中决定性作用的基础。本文在集聚效应框架下, 构建包含技术外部性与货币外部性影响的单区域和多区域人口迁移模型, 使用2000~2011年261个城市的面板数据, 通过引入衡量不同来源外部性的集聚因素, 检验并确认了集聚效应在中国城市增长中的作用。研究发现:以城市人口规模衡量的技术外部性与城市人口增长率之间存在"U"型曲线关系, 但是大多数城市处于曲线的左侧, 城市增长率因城市规模增长而下降;以城市人口密度衡量的技术外部性与城市增长率之间表现出的倒"U"型曲线关系在统计上不显著;新经济地理理论所强调的货币外部性是驱动中国城市增长的重要力量;传统人口迁移理论中决定收入预期的工资和失业率对城市增长也有显著影响。

To learn the driving force of the cities' growth is fundamental for market mechanism to play decisive role in urbanization and urban systems optimization. This paper first constructs singleregion and multi-region urban growth models incorporating technological and pecuniary externalities, then to check and verify the effects of agglomeration economies on China's cities growth by using a panel data of 261 cities between 2000 and 2011. Results show, technological externalities measured by city population have U-shape relation with the growth rate of urban population, but most cities lie on the left side of the curve, which means urban population growth rates go down while cities grow larger; technological externalities measured by city population density have a statistically insignificant inverse U-shape relation with urban population growth rates; pecuniary externalities measured by market potential have significant positive effects on the growth rate of urban population; wages and unemployment rate, which decide the expected income in traditional migration theories, have significant effects on city growth.

基金项目：

科技部"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目"人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统"(2012BAI40B01)

作者简介：

杜旻,管理学博士,中国人口与发展研究中心助理研究员;刘长全,经济学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员。

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