人口与经济

社会保障对农民工回流意愿有影响吗?—基于上海调查数据的实证分析

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作者：余运江¹, 孙斌栋¹, 孙旭²

单位： 1. 华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心, 上海 200241;
2. 上海工程技术大学管理学院, 上海 201620

关键词：农民工;回流意愿;社会保障

分类号：D632.1

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(6):102-108

摘要：

文章以城乡二元户籍制度为背景, 基于上海农民工问卷调查数据, 实证分析社会保障因素对农民工回流意愿的影响, 并得出以下结论:社会保障因素对农民工回流意愿有重要影响, 参加城镇养老保险、城镇医疗保险、城镇失业保险的农民工回流意愿较弱;控制经济因素和个人因素后, 参加农村养老保险、农村医疗保险的农民工回流意愿明显增强, 参加城镇工伤保险的农民工回流意愿明显减弱, 而参加城镇养老保险、城镇医疗保险对农民工回流意愿的影响程度下降。个人及家庭因素中, 新生代农民工、教育程度较高者、子女在本地上学者的回流意愿较弱;经济因素中, 收入水平较高者回流意愿较弱。

In two urban and rural household register system as the background, this empirical analysis of the influencing factors of migrant workers social security return intention based on a questionnaire survey of the Shanghai migrant workers. We got the following conclusion: social security factors have important influence on migrant workers'return intention, the migrants with weak willingness to participate in old-age insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance have stronger intention to return; take the economic factors and personal factors into consideration, to participate in old-age insurance and medical insurance in rural areas increased the migrant workers' return intention and decreased the migrant workers' willingness to participate of the industrial injury insurance, old-age insurance and medical insurance in the town. The new generation of migrant workers is weak return intention, the higher level of education, children in the local scholars. The migrants with higher income have lower return intention.

基金项目：

华东师范大学博士研究生学术新人奖基金项目(xrzz2013002);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(11JJDZH004)

作者简介：

余运江,华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心博士研究生;孙斌栋,华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心副主任,教授、博士生导师,本文通讯作者;孙旭,上海工程技术大学管理学院硕士研究生。

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