人口与经济

劳动力年龄结构与产业转型升级—基于省际面板数据的检验

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作者：任栋¹, 李新运²

单位： 1. 山东大学经济研究院, 济南 250100;
2. 山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 济南 250014

关键词：劳动力年龄结构;青年劳动力比重;产业结构调整;面板模型

分类号：F241

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(5):95-103

摘要：

产业部门的发展需要劳动力资源的支撑, 文章以全国30个省际面板数据为基础, 采用OLS估计法考察劳动力年龄结构变化对产业结构调整的影响。结果显示, 劳动力青年人口比重较高时, 产业结构升级将更为迅速, 中西部产业结构调整受劳动力年龄结构的影响更为显著。我国应从加快转变发展方式、推进产业区域间转移、深化对外开放、提升劳动力资源的质量四个方面来应对劳动力老龄化带来的影响。

The development of industrial needs the support of labor resources, this paper examines the effects of the changes in age structure of labor on industrial structure changing, using OLS estimation method based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces. The results demonstrate that higher proportion of youth labor will promote the industrial structure upgrading quickly, and the effect is more obvious in Midwest with the rapid adjustment of industrial structure. So we should deal with the impact of aging labor on adjustment of industrial structure, by accelerating the transformation of development mode, promoting inter-regional transfer of industries vigorously, deepening opening and improving the quality of labor resources.

基金项目：

作者简介：

任栋,山东大学经济研究院博士研究生;李新运,工学博士,山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院教授。

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