人口与经济

老龄化是卫生费用增长的决定性因素吗?

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作者：王超群

单位：中国人民大学公共管理学院, 北京 100872

关键词：老龄化;卫生费用增长;影响因素;比较分析

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(3):23-30

摘要：

由于采用不同的研究方法,国内外学术界对于老龄化是不是卫生费用增长的决定因素的观点截然相反。文章利用改进的研究方法分析发现,老龄化不是卫生费用增长的决定性因素。老龄化会缓慢地提高老年人口潜在的医疗服务需求,而收入提高、医疗保险扩张和医疗技术进步等因素则会快速释放老年人口(及非老年人口)的卫生费用。因此,老年人口(及非老年人口)卫生费用的快速增长是多重因素共同作用的结果,单纯的老龄化(即老年人口比重上升)只是起到非常微弱的影响。文章建议从源头上降低老年人的发病率,适度扩张医疗保险,控制医疗技术的超速发展,拓宽卫生经费的筹资来源。

The domestic scholar viewpoints on whether aging is the determinant of health expenditure growth or not is diametrically opposite with the foreign scholar viewpoints as their methods are different. This paper employs the improved methods to analyze this problem.We find out that aging is not the determinant of health expenditure growth. Aging could slowly increase the potential demands for medical services of the elderly, while the other factors, such as increasing income, expanding health insurance and advanced medical technology and so on, could quickly release those potential demands. The multiple fators result in rapid growth of health expenditure of the elderly and non-elderly.The effect of pure aging, which just means the portion of old age population goes up, is negligible. The proposals are that the sickness rate of the elderly should be reduced, the protection level of medical insurance should be moderate, the advanced medical technology development should be controlled, and sources of financing should be expanded.

基金项目：

作者简介：

王超群,中国人民大学公共管理学院博士研究生。

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