人口与经济

劳动力减少对我国实体经济的影响—基于GTAP模型的模拟

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作者：林玲, 王成

单位：武汉大学经济与管理学院, 湖北武汉 430072

关键词：劳动力供给;经济影响;GTAP

分类号：F240

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(1):80-87

摘要：

针对我国劳动力的减少,运用GTAP模型模拟分析了劳动力减少对我国实体经济的影响,发现劳动力减少会降低我国福利水平、GDP和居民收入,带来劳动力价格的升高,劳动力密集型产业的产品价格升高、产出和出口减少。在此基础上,进一步研究发现,当非技术劳动力减少5%时,技术劳动力增加15.4%,能有效应对劳动力减少的不利影响,且劳动力质量的这种提升会带来非技术劳动力价格的升高,非技术劳动力密集型产业的产品价格上升,其产出与出口减少;技术劳动力价格的下降,技术劳动力密集型产业产品价格下降,其产出与出口增多。模拟结果一方面表明劳动力减少的不利影响,另一方面肯定了通过职业技能培训,实现非技术劳动力向技术劳动力转化以应对劳动力减少这一措施的有效性。

This paper uses GTAP model to analysis the impacts of labor force supply changes on the economy in China while there is no population change. It derives the following conclusions: the reduction in labor force will reduce the welfare, GDP as well as the household income. Labor force will be more expensive and the output and export of labor intensive industries will drop. It also analyses its impacts on economy in china and how many skilled labor force should increase in order to keep the welfare level while there is a reduction in unskilled labor force. The results find that skilled labor force should increase by about 15.6% in order to keep the welfare level while unskilled labor force drop by 5%. In that case, unskilled labor force will be more expensive and the output and export of unskilled intensive industries will fall while skilled labor force will be cheaper and the output and export of skilled intensive industries will increase. This article proved the adverse effect of the reduction in labor force as well as the usefulness of translating unskilled labor to skilled labor.

基金项目：

国家社会科学基金项目"经济全球化背景下我国对外贸易利益分配研究"(11BJY113)。

作者简介：

林玲,经济学博士,武汉大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师;王成,武汉大学经济与管理学院世界经济系博士研究生。

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