人口与经济

我国人口-经济-二氧化碳排放的关联研究

下载PDF阅读器

作者：肖周燕

单位：首都经济贸易大学人口经济研究所, 北京 100070

关键词：人口增长;经济增长;二氧化碳排放

分类号：C92.05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2012,33(1):16-21

摘要：

通过全国1995~2008年各省区二氧化碳排放和人口发展状况对比发现,人口与二氧化碳排放之间并不呈现简单的正相关关系。本文引入经济系统对人口与二氧化碳排放之间的关系进行关联分析。研究发现,在短时期内,人口增长对二氧化碳排放的影响不可忽视,但从长远来看,经济增长对二氧化碳排放影响更为重要。值得注意的是,虽然人口和经济增长是二氧化碳排放变化的原因,但当滞后期延长,人口和经济系统之间将互为因果,使得人口和二氧化碳排放的关系将更为复杂。

The carbon dioxide emissions of the provinces would be calculated from 1995 to 2008. And we compare the provinces' carbon dioxide emissions and population development.We found that the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions are not a simple correlation.In order to probe the relation,we introduce the economic variable into the research,take advantage the CO-integration analysis and Granger causality test.The paper found that the population and economic growth is the main reason of carbon dioxide emission change.In short Fun the population growth would impact the carbon dioxide emissions,and increase in carbon dioxide emissions cannot be simply attributed to overpopulation,economic growth impact on carbon dioxide emissions more strongly.

基金项目：

国家哲学社会科学基金(10crk002)

作者简介：

肖周燕(1979-),女,湖南常德人,首都经济贸易大学人口经济研究所副教授,研究方向:资源环境经济学。

参考文献：

[1] 联合国人口基金.世界人口状况报告[R].2009:29.
[2] Ehrlich,P.,J.Holdren.Impact of PopulationGrowth[J].Science,1971:171.
[3] Dietz.T.,E.A.Rosa.Efects of Population and Afluence on CO₂ Emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 1997:94.
[4] Shi,A.The Impact of Population Pressure on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions.1975~1996:Evidence from Pooled Cross-country Data[J].Ecological Economics,2003,44.
[5] York.Richard,Eugene A.Rosa,and Thomas Dietz.Footprints on the Earth:the Environmental Consequences of Modernity[J].American Sociological Review,2003, 68.
[6] Cole,Matthe w A.,and Eric Neumayer.Examining the Impacts of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution[J].Population and Environment,2003, 26.
[7] 李志国,李宗植.人口、经济和技术对二氧化碳排放的影响分析[J].人口研究,2010,(3).
[8] Shrestha R.M.,Timilsina G.R.,Factors Afecting CO₂ Intensities of Power Sector in Asia:A Divisia Decomposition Analysis[J],Energy Economics,1996,(4).
[9] Ang B.W.,Zhang F.Q.,Choi K.Factorizing Changes in Energy and Environmental IndicatorsThrough Decomposition[J],Energy,1998,(6).
[10] Xiangzhao F.,Ji z.,Economic Analysis of CO₂ Emission Trends in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2008,(3).
[11] 朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,吴开亚.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009,(12).
[12] 徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析[J].中国人口资源环境,2006,(6).
[13] wu Libo,KANEKO S,MATSUOKA S.Driving Forces Behind the Stagnancy of China's Energy-related CO₂ Emissions from 1996~1999:The Relative Importance of Structural Change,Intensity Change and Scale Change[J].Energy Policy,2005,(3).
[14] 彭希哲,朱勤.我国人口态势与消费模式对碳排放的影响分析[J].人口研究,2010,(1).

欢迎阅读《人口与经济》，您是本文的第位浏览者。