人口与经济

人口变动对长期经济发展的作用—基于台湾地区的经验数据

下载PDF阅读器

作者：姚万军

单位：南开大学经济学院, 天津 300071

关键词：人口效果;台湾地区;向量误差修正模型

分类号：C92

出版年,卷(期):页码：2010,31(1):8-14

摘要：

通过运用台湾地区1952~1999年的经验数据和向量误差修正计量模型检验了人口、技术进步与经济发展三者间的关系,研究发现总人口、技术进步和经济发展之间存在长期的稳定关系,经济发展是总人口和技术进步的函数;同时总人口对经济发展具有直接的负效果和间接的正效果,但是总体来看人口对于经济发展的作用是积极的。因此从长期经济发展的角度看,我国庞大的人口基数将是实现经济持续增长的有利条件。

This paper empirically analyzed the relationship between population,technical progress,and economic growth in Chinese Taipei from 1954 to 1999,using the VECM model.The empirical results show that economic growth is a function of population and technological progress,and the effect of population on the economic growth is positive on the whole.So the huge number of population in China is a favorable condition to economic growth in the long run.

基金项目：

南开大学"985"项目;南开大学2007年度人文社会科学青年项目(NKQ07008)的资助

作者简介：

姚万军(1975-),内蒙古通辽人,南开大学经济学院副教授,研究方向为农业经济学和人口经济学。

参考文献：

[1] Bloom,D.E.J.G.Williamsen. Demogaphic Transition and Economic Growth Miracles in Emerging Asia.Asia.Wodd Bank Economic Review,1998,12.
[2] Higginst,M.and J.G.WiJliamsen Age Structure Dynamics in Asia and Dependence on Foreign Capital.Population and Developent Review,1997,23.
[3] Romer,P.M Endogenous Technological Change 1990.98
[4] Grossman,G.M and E.Helpman Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy.MIT Press, 1991.
[5] Barro,R.J and X.Sala-i-Martin Economic Growth.McGrawHill, 1995
[6] Yamaguchi,M and H.Binswanger The Role of Sectoral Technical Change in Development:Japan,1880-1965.American journal of Agricultural Economics,1975,57.
[7] Young,A Lessons form the East Asian NICS:A contradan view.European Economic Review,1994,38.
[8] Lin,T.C Education,Technical Progress,and Economic Growth:the Case of Talwan,Economics of Education Review,2003.22.
[9] Lin,T.C The Role of Higher Education in Economic Development:an Empirical Study of Taiwan Journal of Asian Economics,2004,15.
[10] Chow,G Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China:A Comparative Analysis.Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30.
[11] 同
[12] Yso,W.J.Y.C.Hsieh and S.Y.Hamori An Empirical Analysis about Population,Technological Progress,and Economic Growth in Taiwan.Economics Bulletin,2007,15.
[13] Granger,C.W.J Some Recent Developments in the Concept of Causality.Journal of Econometrics,1988,39.
[14] Hamori,S.Y The Transmission Mechanism of Business Cycles Among Germany,Japan,the UK and the USA Applied Economics,2000,32.
[15] Toda,H.Y.T.K.Yamamoto. Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes.Journal of Econometrics,1 995.66.
[16] Johansen.S Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models.Odord:Oxford University Press,i995.
[17] Connolly,M The Dual Nature of Trade:Measuring its Impact on Imitation and Growth.Journal of Development Economics,2003,72.
[18] 同[12]
[19] 同[6]

欢迎阅读《人口与经济》，您是本文的第位浏览者。