人口与经济

中国的男孩偏好和婚姻挤压—初婚与再婚市场的综合分析

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作者：李树茁¹, 姜全保², 伊莎贝尔·阿塔尼³, 费尔德曼⁴

单位： 1. 西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院人口与发展研究所, 陕西西安 710049;
2. 西安交通大学管理学院, 陕西西安 710049;
3. 法国国立人口研究所;
4. 斯坦福大学人口与资源研究所

关键词：男孩偏好;婚姻市场;婚姻挤压;出生性别比;再婚

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2006,27(4):1-8

摘要：

中国强烈的男孩偏好和对女性的歧视导致了婚姻市场上严重的男性婚姻挤压。本文使用中国2000年普查数据和所预测的2001~2050年人口数据, 结合初婚和再婚市场设计了度量婚姻挤压的指标, 测度了2001~2050年中国的婚姻挤压程度, 考察了男孩偏好和再婚因素对中国未来婚姻挤压的影响。结果表明未来中国婚姻市场每年有10%~15%男性过剩人口, 达到120万人。男孩偏好导致的高出生性别比显著影响未来婚姻市场, 而再婚人口对婚姻市场上过剩人口也有显著影响。

In China, strong son preference and discrimination against girls have resulted in male squeeze in the marriage market. Using projection data and marriage information in 2000 census, we devise a series of indexes taking account of both first marriage and remarriage, measure the extent of male squeeze in China's market from 2001 to 2050, and analyze the impact of son preference and remarriage on marriage squeeze. The results show that there will be 10% to 15% excess males every year in the marriage market; and the number will reach 1.2 million. Still the SRBs caused by son preference significant influence the marriage market. Remarriage exerts great impact on the numbers and proport ions of excess males.

基金项目：

教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-04-0931);西安交通大学"985工程"二期重点项目(07200701)的联合资助

作者简介：

李树茁(1963-),男,陕西西安人,毕业于西安交通大学,获博士学位。现任西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院人口与发展研究所所长、教授。研究方向为人口与社会可持续发展、公共政策分析与评价。

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