Urbanization will be a driving force behind Chinese socia-l economic growth over the next few decades. But demographic changes and huge rural to urban migration are key challenges that are emerging even as the urbanization process accelerates. This paper presents demographic scenarios at both national and regional levels under the assumption of moderate urbanization for the period 2000 through 2030. Results of this forecast provide insights on the long-term urbanization trends in China;in part icular the results demonstrate the importance of rura-l urban migration and the transformation of rural settlements into cities in causing a high rate of population growth in urban areas, and an aging population in rural areas.
