人口与经济

以晚育为杠杆,平稳向二孩政策过渡

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作者：曾毅

单位：北京大学老龄健康与家庭研究中心, 中国经济研究中心, 北京 100871

关键词：生育间隔;晚育杠杆;二孩政策

分类号：C924.21

出版年,卷(期):页码：2005,26(2):7-14

摘要：

目前取消生育间隔政策而允许生二孩条件不变的弊远大于利,其中最大的弊端在于它实际上是为生育政策平稳调整设置障碍。目前取消只适用于少数人的间隔政策,而作出牺牲最大、流引产与被罚风险最大的大多数一孩夫妇的权益得不到改善,而且在为一孩夫妇的权益改善 (即生育政策调整)设置障碍,实际上是一种社会不公。晚育是一根有力的"杠杆";运用好了,可以在国家能够承受的"人口增量"范围内,实现平稳向二孩政策过渡的软着陆。

This paper first reviews and analyzes the demographic impacts of changes in fertility timing on population growth.Based on the decomposition analysis, we show that the most important factor that contributed to the large decrease in TFR between 1990 and 2000 is increase in age at first marriage and births.Based on these analysis, we discuss from four aspects that the loses would be much larger than the benefits to be gained if the birth spacing policy were removed right now, while the one-child policy is not relaxed, as three provinces did recently.The most serious lose is that once the birth spacing policy is removed now, it would cause heavy obstacles for relaxing the current one-child policy in the near future because allowing the huge number of one-child couples to have the second birth with no-spacing would create new baby boom, which is not acceptable by the policy makers.Furthermore, removing now the spacing policy which is applicable only to couples who are allowed to have two children (which is minority of the population), but the majority—one-child couples who are sacrificed the most—will have no benefits;this is unfair.We believe that the two-child plus spacing poticy is the optimal choice of China to modify the current one-child policy.We also discuss our recommendations concerning the smooth transition to the two-child plus spacing policy.

基金项目：

作者简介：

曾毅(1952-),男,江西人,北京大学中国经济研究中心与杜克大学人口研究中心教授,博士生导师

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