人口与经济

中国高龄死亡模式及其与瑞典、日本的比较分析

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作者：曾毅¹, 金沃泊²

单位： 1. 北京大学中国经济研究中心北京 100871;
2. 德国马普研究院人口研究所

关键词：高龄死亡模式;死亡率曲线交叉;高龄老人生命表;高龄死亡率性别差异

分类号：C921

出版年,卷(期):页码：2004,25(3):8-16

摘要：

本文发现只有二个参数的莰尼斯托 (Kannisto)模型 (即简化的罗吉斯特模型)对中国高龄老人死亡率的拟合效果好于其他五个模型。中国与瑞典、日本 96岁以上的年龄别死亡率比较相近,而中国 96岁以下的年龄别死亡率显著高于瑞典、日本。我们认为这一有趣的趋同现象可能主要是由中国高龄老人"劣淘优存"的选择性更强而形成的。我们还发现与发达国家模式类似,中国的死亡率随着年龄增加而升高的趋势在 96岁以后的特高年龄段减缓。

We find that the Kannisto model, a two_parameter logistic formula, fits Han Chinese death rates at oldest_old ages better than the Gompertz and four other models. Chinese death rates appear to be roughly similar to Swedish and Japanese rates after age 97 for both males and females. Because reports of age seem to be serviceably reliable up to age 100 and perhaps age 105 in China, we think that this convergence may be mainly due to mortality selection in the heterogeneous Chinese population. We show thatin China, as in developed countries, the rate of increase in mortality with age decelerates at very old ages.

基金项目：

作者简介：

曾毅(1952-),男,江西人,北京大学中国经济研究中心与杜克大学人口研究中心教授,博士生导师;金沃泊,德国马普研究院人口研究所教授,所长。

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