人口与经济

我国省域人力资本的收敛性分析——基于三种测算方法的比较

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作者：黄乾, 李修彪

单位：南开大学经济学院, 天津 300071

关键词：教育指标测算法;成本测算法;收入测算法;空间溢出效应;空间杜宾收敛模型

分类号：F240

出版年,卷(期):页码：2015,36(4):94-106

摘要：

运用空间计量分析技术,将空间因素引入传统收敛模型,对基于教育指标法、成本法和收入法三种人力资本测算方法的1987-2010年的省域人均人力资本进行空间相关性检验与收敛性分析。研究结果表明,我国省域人力资本具有显著的正向空间相关性,人力资本在区域上并非无规律的随机分布,而是在京津、苏沪浙地区形成了高—高聚集的良性发展态势,并对周围区域产生辐射作用,人力资本积累的空间溢出效应显著。基于教育指标测算法和成本测算法的省域人力资本均呈现出收敛性,说明我国区域教育投入、卫生保健投入的相对差距在逐渐缩小,区域协调发展取得了良好的效果。而基于收入测算法的省域人力资本收敛性不显著,且2000后呈现发散性,这要求政府要更加关注人力资本的运行效率问题。

Using spatial econometric technology, this paper puts spatial factors into the traditional convergence model to study spatial correlation and convergence about provincial regions' per capita human capital in China based on the data from 1987 to 2010. The three different estimation methods include calculation method based on education indicator, cost-based method and income-based method. The empirical analysis shows that there is significant spatial correlation in provincial regions' per capita human capital in China. Human capital is not randomly distributed in the provincial regions. Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai form high-high human capital accumulation zones, and radiate surrounding areas. The space spillover effect of human capital accumulation is significant. Provincial regions' per capita human capital in China calculated by education indicator and cost estimation method show convergence. This reveals the relative gap of investment in education and health care is gradually shrinking, so the balanced regional development achieves good results. There is no significant convergence in the estimation based on income estimation. It is even diverged after 2000, It is suggested that the government should pay more attention to operational efficiency of human capital.

基金项目：

2012年全国统计科学研究计划重点项目"中国区域人力资本的测算与收敛性的空间计量研究"(2012LZ034)。

作者简介：

黄乾,经济学博士,南开大学经济学院教授;李修彪,南开大学经济学院博士研究生。

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