人口与经济

高校扩招对我国初婚年龄的影响——基于普查数据的分析

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作者：刘昊

单位：中国人民大学社会与人口学院, 北京 100872

关键词：高校扩招;初婚推迟;性别差异;普查数据

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2016,37(1):19-28

摘要：

利用第五次和第六次全国人口普查数据,考察了自高校扩招以来我国人口受教育结构发生的巨大变化对我国初婚年龄的影响。结果显示,高校扩招后,我国各年份出生同期人的中位初婚年龄持续上升;在2010年,受益于高校扩招的适婚人口的已婚比例相比2000年同龄人的已婚比例显著下降,且受高等教育人口的已婚比例低于未受高等教育人口的已婚比例。高校扩招带来的人口受教育结构变化对我国初婚的推迟现象具有较强的解释力,解释力表现出随年龄增加逐渐减小的特点,并具有性别差异,其中对"六普"时点23岁的男性解释力高达78%,对23岁女性的解释力亦超过50%。

Using the fifth and the sixth population census data, we examine the relationship between college enrollment expansion and the change of first marriage age in China. The results show that, after college enrollment expansion, the median of the first marriage of the different birth cohorts kept increased and the marriage proportions of people who benefited from college expansion in 2010 are lower than people with the same age in 2000. Meanwhile, the higher educated people's marriage proportions are lower than people who didn't enter college. The college enrollment expansion is the major force postponing first marriage, and the influence decrease as age increases and more than 50%. For male who are 23-year-old in 2010, 78% of the total change of marriage proportion is caused by college enrollment expansion, and for female, this ratio is also more than 50%.

基金项目：

作者简介：

刘昊,中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生。

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