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中国人口结构变动下的家庭户消费模式——基于狄利克雷模型的多时点分析
作者: 孙亮亮1,蒋耒文1,2
单位: 1.上海大学 亚洲人口研究中心,上海 200444;2.美国人口理事会,美国 纽约 10017
关键词: 消费模式; 家庭人口特征; 区域差异; 狄利克雷模型
分类号:C92-05
出版年,卷(期):页码:2021(05):56-68
摘要:
2000年以后,初步完成人口转型的中国进入以人口年龄、城乡结构持续转变为特点的后人口转变时期,长期以来的快速经济增长带动了居民消费的巨大变化;消费规模的扩大也同时成为经济增长的主要拉动力。但关于新时期人口结构和空间分布的转变对消费结构模式影响的研究非常缺乏。利用中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)2012—2016三期微观调查数据,通过构建狄利克雷多分类比例回归模型,探究该时期家庭人口特征对家庭户消费模式的影响和两者关系在不同年份和区域的差异。结果显示,在控制收入的影响后,我国家庭人口特征对消费模式的变化发挥了重要的作用:从整体来看,城乡差异和城市化进程作用明显,全国消费规模的扩大主要来源于城市,而消费结构的变化主要体现在农村;从人口因素和消费结构的关系来看,户主年龄对居住、医疗、交通通信、文教娱乐支出比例的影响呈“U”型关系,但对日用品和衣着支出比例的影响呈倒“U”型,规模较大、受教育程度高和女性户主的家庭,非食品消费支出比例更大;从区域差异来看,中西部地区家庭食品消费支出比例低于东部,但家庭人口特征对消费结构的影响模式在不同区域基本稳定;从纵向的视角来看,城乡家庭消费结构差异随时间持续扩大,而受教育程度高和女性户主家庭非食品消费支出比例高的情况有所弱化。

After 2000,China initially completed its demographic transition and entered apost-demographic transition period characterized by a continuous shift in population age and urban-rural structure.The rapid economic growth of China has led to great changes in consumption; the expansion of consumption scale has also become the main driving force of economic growth.However,the study on the impact of the change of population size,structure and spatial distribution on consumption structure in new period is scarce. Based on the three waves of the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) from 2012 to 2016,this paper uses Dirichlet proportional regression model to explore the impact of house hold demographics on household consumption pattern and the difference of the relationship between the two various years and regions.The results show that when income level is controlled, household demographic characteristics play an important role in the change of consumption pattern.Overall, the difference between urban and rural areas and urbanization process have played a significant role.The expansion of national consumption mainly comes from cities,while the change of consumption structure mainly lies in rural areas.In terms of the relationship between demographics and consumption structure, the age of the householder has U-shape relationships with the proportion of housing,medical care,transportation & communication,culture & education & entertainment; but its impact on the proportion of daily necessities and clothing expenditure shows an inverted U-shaped relationship.Larger,more educated and female-headed households spend a large proportion of their non-food consumption. From the perspective of regional difference,the proportion of food expenditure in the central and western regions is lower than that in the eastern region, but the relationship between household demographic characteristics and consumption structure is basically stable in different regions.From the longitudinal perspective,the study also found that the differences in consumption structure between urban and rural households kept expanding over time, while the situation that the proportion of non-food consumption expenditure of the families with higher education level and female head of household is high weakens to some extent.
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金重大项目 “‘一带一路’战略下的中国和沿线国家国际人口迁移研究”(16ZDA088)
作者简介:
孙亮亮,上海大学亚洲人口研究中心博士研究生; 蒋耒文,上海大学亚洲人口研究中心主任,教授,博士生导师,美国人口理事会高级顾问
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