Given the low fertility rate, the high cost of child-rearing have already emerged as the dominant constraint that hinders the conversion of fertility intention into actual fertility behavior. Based on the data of “the Survey of Child-rearing Costs and Fertility Intentions” in Xi’an in 2019, employing the method of variance analysis and Poisson Regression, this research discusses the impact of child-rearing cost on the child-bearing intention of couples with one child, which is mainly derived from theoretical perspective of the new family economics and family life cycle theory. The findings are as followed: the average number of intended children of couples with one child is 1. 35. Meanwhile, the average numbers of children planned by families with children aged 0-3, 4-6 and 7-12 years old are 1. 43, 1.32 and 1.29 respectively. The direct economic cost of a couple with child is mainly related to education and food costs, among which food costs are mostly for families with child aged 0-3, while education costs account for majority as child aged 4-6 and 7-12 years. Indirect costs are mainly related to opportunity cost, time cost and the labor cost, among which the families with child aged 0-3 years old pay more time costs, while families with children aged 4-6 and 7-12 years old pay more in opportunity and labor costs. There is significant heterogeneity in the effect of rearing costs on the number of children that the couples with one child intend to have. Direct education costs, recreation costs and indirect opportunity costs and labor costs will reduce the number of children that the couple with one child plan to. The planed numbers of families with child aged 0 - 3 years old are mainly influenced by opportunity costs and manpower costs, meanwhile, planed numbers of families with child aged 4-6 years are mainly influenced by education costs and opportunity costs, moreover, planed numbers of families with child aged 7 - 12 are mainly constrained by recreation costs and manpower costs. These findings will help improve us to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the costs of child-rearing and fertility intentions, as well as provide us with a new idea to reduce family costs of child -rearing separately, improving fertility intention of families with different life cycles precisely.
