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中国经济转型时期的劳动生产率 ———影响因素和增长分解
作者: 邓金锋, 杨 娟
单位: 北京师范大学 经济与工商管理学院, 北京 100875
关键词: 结构转变; 资本深化; 教育数量; 教育质量; 劳动生产率
分类号:F249. 22
出版年,卷(期):页码:2022(04):122-138
摘要:
“十四五” 期间, 国内经济发展进入新阶段, 劳动生产率增速对于 GDP增速起着决定性作用, 因此, 有必要对经济转型时期劳动生产率的增长进一步分析, 探究其增长源泉。对新古典增长模型进行扩展, 并利用各省市 1998—2019 年数据, 对劳动生产率进行回归估计和增长分解。 研究的主要发现有: OLS 回归结果
表明, 中国劳动生产率在产业结构转变期间确实经历了 “结构性减速”, 但分解的结果表明, 这种减速主要存在于低劳动生产率部门, 对高劳动生产率部门反而有一定积极作用; 回归和分解的结果表明, 出口结构对劳动生产率的促进作用仅发生在低分位处, 且总体效应较小; 产业结构转变期的资本产出弹性更大, 且资本深化仍是中国劳动生产率增长的最大动力; 教育数量和教育质量对劳动生产率的影响在一定程度上取决于对方的水平, 目前教育扩张对劳动生产率的增长仍有促进作用; 转型期间劳动生产率的分布更加集中, 表明省际间的劳动生产率存在趋同, 分解的结果表明主要是由要素回报导致的。基于实证分析的结论, 未来引导产业结构向生产
性服务化发展, 进而引导制造业向高端化发展是缓解转变期经济 “阵痛” 的重要途径; 同时, 兼顾教育数量和教育质量的教育扩张将更有益于劳动生产率增长。

As domestic economic entered a new stage, the growth of labor productivity plays a decisive role in GDP growth during the 14th Five Year Plan. Therefore, it’s necessary to
further analyze the growth of labor productivity in the period of economic transformation and explore its growth source. This paper extends the neoclassical growth model, and makes regression estimation and growth decomposition of labor productivity by using the data of various provinces and cities from 1998 to 2019. The main findings of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the results of OLS regression show that China’ s labor productivity has
indeed experienced a “structural slowdown” during the transformation of industrial structure, but the results of decomposition show that this slowdown mainly happened in low labor productivity sectors and has a positive effect on high labor productivity sectors. Secondly, the results of regression and decomposition show that the promotion effect of export structure on labor productivity only occurs in the low quantile, and the overall effect is small. Thirdly, the capital output elasticity is larger during the transformation period of industrial structure, and capital deepening is still the biggest driving force for China’s labor productivity growth. Fourthly, the influence of the quantity and quality of education on labor productivity depends
on the level of each other to a certain level. Presently, the expansion of education is still
promoting for the growth of labor productivity. Lastly, during the transition period, the distribution of labor productivity is more concentrated, indicating that there is convergence of labor productivity among provinces. The decomposition results show that this is mainly caused by factor return. Based on the conclusion of empirical analysis, this paper holds that
productive-service-oriented policy and guiding of the development of high -productivity manufacturing should be appreciated to alleviate the “pain” of economic. At the same time,
the expansion of education, which takes into account the quantity and quality of education, will be more beneficial to the growth of labor productivity.
基金项目:
作者简介:
邓金锋, 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院硕士研究生; 杨娟, 经济学博士, 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授。
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