人口与经济

我国全年龄段人口平均预期寿命的动态演变

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作者：段白鸽

单位：复旦大学经济学院, 上海 200433

关键词：死亡率改善;平均预期寿命;动态死亡率模型;动态生命表;趋同化发展

分类号：C921

出版年,卷(期):页码：2015,36(1):49-63

摘要：

文章基于Lee-Carter模型从拟合和预测全年龄段人口死亡率、计算平均预期寿命和构造动态生命表的应用三方面深度诠释了我国大陆1994-2060年、台湾地区1970-2060年0-100岁及以上男性、女性和合计人口死亡率及平均预期寿命的动态演变规律,并针对台湾地区充足死亡率数据和大陆地区有限死亡率数据,探讨了Lee-Carter模型预测结果的有效性。研究结果表明,女性死亡率改善、平均预期寿命延长的程度明显高于男性,且这种性别差异在未来50年仍持续显著。无论是男性、女性还是合计人口,我国大陆和台湾地区各年龄死亡率、平均预期寿命之间的差异明显缩小,未来死亡率呈现趋同化发展。这种趋同化发展可以为我国长寿风险的量化与管理、相关政策的制定与完善、制度的设计与优化提供依据。

In the present paper we elaborate thoroughly the dynamic evolutions of all ages( 0- 100 +years old) mortality rates and all ages life expectancy for male,female and total population respectively for China mainland 1994- 2060 and Taiwan province 1970- 2060,based on three applications of Lee-Carter model,i.e. fitting and forecasting all ages mortality rates,calculating all ages life expectancy,and constructing dynamic life tables. We further discuss the effectiveness of the forecasted results in Lee-Carter model,with sufficient mortality data in Taiwan province and limited mortality data in China mainland. The study results show that the mortality improvements and increases of life expectancy of female are significantly higher than those of male,and this difference in gender will continue consistently in the next 50 years. The differences of both the mortality rates and life expectancy of all ages have obviously been narrowing between China mainland and Taiwan province,and the mortality rates will show the tendency of convergence development in the future for male and female. This convergence can provide some theoretical basis for quantification and management of China's longevity risks,for formulation and improvement of related policies,and for design and optimization of system.

基金项目：

国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于相依结构的多元索赔金评估随机性方法研究"(71401041);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"非寿险随机性索赔准备金评估统计模型与方法"(14YJCZH025);国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究"(11&ZD073);中国博士后科学基金项目"动态死亡率建模与长寿风险量化研究"(2014M550206)

作者简介：

段白鸽,经济学博士,复旦大学经济学院教师,师资博士后,中国准精算师

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