人口与经济

延迟退休与养老金财富关系的定量考察

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作者：余桔云

单位：江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院, 江西南昌 330013

关键词：养老保险;延迟退休;养老金财富模型

分类号：F844.67

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(4):74-81

摘要：

延迟退休定调为"渐进式"改革,但民众普遍担心利益受损。本文通过养老金财富损益模型,运用交叉分析法,定量考察延迟退休对养老金财富的影响,其影响方向和程度取决于参数的不同组合。在可能的参数组合下,养老金财富都存在上升的区间,即延迟退休不等于利益受损;当预期寿命可预知时,延迟退休的最长年限具有一定稳定性和可预见性;女性延长退休年限的空间大于男性,延长相同年限时,女性获益程度高于男性。对此,延迟退休政策应分人群实施,并在实行法定延退的同时推行弹性退休制度;有必要保持养老金参数的可预见性和稳定性,以便职工理性选择;根据养老金财富影响参数的变化,建立相应的利益调整机制等。

Postpone retirement is defined as "progressive" reforms,but most people worry about loss. Based on pension wealth model,this paper made a quantitative study of the impact of postpone retirement on pension wealth using cross analysis,The results show its impact depends on different combinations of parameters. There is rising pension wealth range under possible parameter combinations,which means delay retirement does not equal loss;when life expectancy is predictable,the longest delay retirement age has a certain stability and predictability;extension space of retirement age for women is longer than men,to extend the same time,women will get more benefit than men. Therefore,the delay retirement policies should be distinguished for different group,and implementing mandatory postpone retirement and flexible retirement at the same time. It is necessary to maintain predictability and stability of parameters for workers rational choice;to build corresponding interest adjustment mechanism etc. based on changes of the impact parameters.

基金项目：

江西省发展和改革委员会委托课题 "加快江西养老服务体系建设研究"

作者简介：

余桔云,经济学博士,江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院劳动与社会保险系系主任,副教授。

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