人口与经济

人口结构变迁的经济增长效应分析

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作者：孙爱军¹, 刘生龙²

单位： 1. 淮阴师范学院经济与管理学院, 江苏淮安 223300;
2. 中国社会科学院数量经济技术经济研究所, 北京 100732

关键词：人口结构变迁;人口老龄化;人口抚养比;经济增长

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2014,35(1):37-46

摘要：

为了论证人口结构变迁对经济增长的影响,本文在一个索洛模型的基础之上引入人口结构变量,从理论上梳理并建立计量分析模型,应用中国1990~2010年的省级面板数据,分别使用固定效应、混合OLS和工具变量法对人口经济变迁的经济效应进行实证检验。结果表明:劳动年龄人口份额上升、人口抚养比下降是过去20年来中国经济高速增长的重要因素,1990~2010年由人口抚养比下降导致的经济增长约为1.44个百分点,对经济增长的贡献度达到了15%。随着人口日益老龄化,未来的人口结构变迁将会对经济增长产生显著的负面影响,中国应通过提升劳动力的受教育水平、技术进步、人力资源制度建设等来应对未来的人口老龄化问题。

Firstly, this paper introduces demographic variables in Solow Model to analyze its impacts on economic growth theoretically. Secondly, this paper collects China's provincial data from 1990~2008 and uses fixed effect model, test effect of demographic change on the economic.We use pooled OLS and instrumental variables method estimate the parameter respectively. The empirical conclusion indicates that increasing of the share of working-age population and decreasing of social dependency ratio are the important factors of China's rapid economic growth in past 20 years. From 1990 to 2008, the economic growth in China resulting from reduction of population dependency is about 1.44%, and the economic growth contribution of demographic change was 15%. As the population aging in China is gradually deepened, demographic change will bring negative impact on China's future economic growth. All of this means that China should adopt an active strategy to address future population aging.

基金项目：

中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"经济预测与经济政策评价"(sky2012031);国家社会科学基金"中国对外贸易中的碳排放测度与评估"(13BJY069);江苏省"青蓝工程"。

作者简介：

孙爱军,工学博士,经济学博士后,淮阴师范学院经济与管理学院教授,澳大利亚西悉尼大学访问学者;刘生龙,中国社会科学院数量经济技术经济研究所助理研究员。

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