人口与经济

中国人口变动对经济增长影响的量化研究

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作者：齐明珠

单位：首都经济贸易大学人口经济研究所, 北京 100070

关键词：人口变动;经济增长;定量影响

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2013,34(6):10-18

摘要：

文章采用历史增长核算法,将经济增长分解为三个贡献要素,即劳动年龄人口规模的增长、劳动生产率的增长及劳动力利用效率的增长。在此基础上考察1991~2011年中国实际GDP增长和各贡献要素的变化特征和趋势,结果表明,劳动生产率的提升是中国过去20年经济增长的最主要动力,其次为劳动年龄人口的增长,而劳动力利用效率的影响为负。从未来趋势上看,我国人口年龄结构和总量变化都将对经济发展带来负面影响,短期看人口年龄结构的影响更大,中长期则人口总量的影响更大;劳动参与率的下降和工作时间的减少将使劳动力利用效率进一步下降;而近年来中国劳动生产率的增长速度放缓,这些因素预示着中国未来经济发展速度必然放缓。最后,文章提出促进农村劳动力向非农产业转移以提升总体劳动生产率,降低非充分就业率提升实际劳动力利用效率等政策建议。

By using growth accounting,this paper decomposes GDP growth into three growth components: working age population,labor force productivity and labor force utilization. By examining the changes of the real GDP and its input contributors from 1991 to 2011,the results show that labor productivity growth has been the most important driver of GDP growth,and the next is working age population growth,while labor force utilization has showed negative effects. In the future,both the changes of the population age structure and the size will have negative effects on economic growth. The decrease of labor force participation rate and the decrease of working hours will make labor force utilization to keep falling down. Furthermore,we have already observed the decreasing trend of growth rate of labor productivity. All these trends indicate that the economic growth pace will slow down. In concluding,the paper proposes to decrease inefficient employment and facilitate the sustainable transfer of rural labor forces to non-agricultural industry.

基金项目：

北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目

作者简介：

齐明珠(1971-),女,辽宁沈阳人,首都经济贸易大学人口经济研究所教授,法学博士。研究方向:人口变动与经济发展、人口老龄化、人口与就业。

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