人口与经济

上海产业发展、外来人口及城镇化关系研究

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作者：林文生

单位：上海大学悉尼工商学院, 上海 201800

关键词：产业发展;外来人口;城镇化;误差修正模型

分类号：C921

出版年,卷(期):页码：2013,34(4):39-45

摘要：

文章基于上海市1978~2010年年度数据,在VECM框架下分析了上海第二、第三产业发展、外来人口及城镇化之间的长期均衡关系和相互动态影响。研究结果表明,上海第二产业发展是第三产业发展的格兰杰原因,而且是第三产业发展和城镇化的长期驱动力;第三产业发展对第二产业的发展有短期推动作用,并能够长期带动外来人口增长;外来人口上升和城镇化对第二、第三产业发展有短期内的促进作用和长期内的阻碍作用。本文对如何进一步推动上海各产业发展和加强城市人口管理,提出了一些政策建议。

Using the data from 1978 to 2010,and under VECM system,this paper examines the long term equilibrium and dynamic relationships among the development of the secondary and tertiary industries,non-local population and urbanization in Shanghai. The conclusions are: the secondary industry causes the development of the tertiary sector,and is the long term impetus for the tertiary industry and urbanization;the tertiary sector can only temporarily drive the secondary industry,yet it is the main cause for the non-local population growth,which,along with urbanization,can only contributes temporarily to industry growth. Some policy suggestions are made on how to further upgrade and optimize industries and how to better administrate non-local population and urbanization in Shanghai in the conclusion.

基金项目：

作者简介：

林文生(1967-),江西分宜人,上海大学悉尼工商学院讲师, (韩国) 建国大学外聘助理教授,金融学博士。研究方向: 区域经济学、国际经济学和货币金融学。

参考文献：

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