人口与经济

中国经济增长中的两次人口红利研究

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作者：贺大兴

单位：北京大学马克思主义学院, 北京 100871

关键词：抚养比;老龄化;人口结构;经济增长

分类号：C921

出版年,卷(期):页码：2013,34(4):46-52

摘要：

本文利用中国1987~2008年省级面板数据,研究了人口抚养比下降和老年抚养比上升对经济增长的影响。本文发现:20多年来,人口抚养比下降的"第一次人口红利"效应和老年抚养比上升的"第二次人口红利"效应同时存在,都对中国经济的发展作出了贡献;如果生育率和经济发展模式不变,未来老龄化产生的"第二次人口红利"效应,至多为其损失的"第一次人口红利"的40%;相对于单纯调整人口结构,健全社会保障制度、提高公共教育投入水平,可能是克服老龄化问题的更好途径。

This paper analyzes the effects of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the rise of the elderly on the china economic growth over the last 30 years. This paper finds that: 1) the "first demographic dividend" of the decline of the total dependency ratio and the "second demographic dividend" of the rise of the elderly both exist and make a contribution to the economic growth;2) if the fertility rate and developmental pattern remain and the old dependency ratio grow in the future, the gain of the "second demographic dividend" is at most the 2/5 of the cost of the reversal of the "first demographic dividend";3) improving the social security system and the public education system may be the better way than the policies which focus too much attention on changing the aging structure.

基金项目：

作者简介：

贺大兴(1981-),湖北宜都人,经济学博士,北京大学马克思主义学院讲师。研究方向: 发展经济学。

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