人口与经济

人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的路径分析

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作者：王芳

单位：南京财经大学经济学院, 江苏南京 210046

关键词：人口年龄结构;居民消费;结构方程模型;路径分析

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2013,34(3):12-19

摘要：

文章在人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的理论机制基础上,提出人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的直接路径和间接路径假设,并以结构方程模型进行了路径分析的实证检验。检验结果表明:人口年龄结构对居民消费存在直接影响和间接影响;直接影响中,人口总抚养比正向影响居民消费,少儿抚养比、老年抚养比负向影响居民消费;间接影响中,总抚养比、少儿抚养比能通过产业结构、经济增长及收入分配影响居民消费,而老年抚养比只通过收入分配影响居民消费;同时研究发现,人口年龄结构对居民消费的间接影响路径系数大于直接影响路径系数。并且本文对基于人口年龄结构的我国低消费率的形成机制进行了分析。

Based on the theory mechanism of the age structure of the population influence upon consumption,the paper proposes the direct path and indirect path hypotheses on the age structure of the population influence upon consumption,and uses the structural equation model to do empirical test. The results showed that: the population age structure has direct effects and indirect effects on dweller's consumption; in direct effect,total population dependency ratio have positive effects on consumption,the child dependency ratio,the elderly dependency ratio has negative effect on consumption; in indirect effects,the total dependency ratio,the child dependency ratio affect consumption through the industrial structure,economic growth and income distribution while the elderly dependency ratio affects the resident's consumption only through income distribution; at the same time,studies have found,the coefficient of age structure of the population on the indirect path is larger than that on the direct effect of path. And this paper analyses the mechanism China's low consumption rate based on age structure of population.

基金项目：

国家社会科学基金项目"人口年龄结构对居民消费影响机制的实证分析"(11CJY031);国家统计局重点项目(2011LZ033);江苏省2011年高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2011SJB910001);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目;江苏省"青蓝工程"项目

作者简介：

王芳(1976-),女,安徽宿松人,南京财经大学统计系副教授,管理学博士。研究方向:多元统计分析、人口统计、消费经济。

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