人口与经济

中国城市规模分布的演进趋势研究—基于全国人口普查数据

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作者：余吉祥^1,2, 周光霞¹, 段玉彬¹

单位： 1. 安徽科技学院财经学院, 安徽蚌埠 233100;
2. 南京大学经济学院, 江苏南京 210093

关键词：城市规模分布;城市化政策;齐夫回归

分类号：F291.1

出版年,卷(期):页码：2013,34(2):44-52

摘要：

城市规模分布的特征受城市化政策的影响。本文基于全国人口普查数据,在对城市人口统计口径进行详细探讨的基础上,使用齐夫回归方法研究发现,随着城市化政策在2000年前后的调整,中国城市规模分布的演进趋势经历了从分散化发展到集中化发展的转变。另外,研究发现已有的基于"市区非农业人口"的研究低估了中国城市规模分布的集中度。本文的启示是,走一条以大城市为主要载体的城市化道路是加速推进中国城市化进程的关键。

The characteristics of city size distribution are affected by urbanization policy. Based on census data and a detailed analysis in statistics problem of city population size,we find with Zipf's law that a dispersed trend has been replaced by a centralized trend in city size distribution since 2000. In addition,we find that the existing literature has underestimated the degree of concentration using non-agriculture population of urban area. With the findings in this paper,we propose that it is important for accelerating urbanization process to rely on the development of large city.

基金项目：

国家哲学社会科学基金项目(11CJL031);教育部人文社会科学项目(10YJC790353、12YJC790287);第51批博士后科学基金面上项目(2012M510128);国务院第六次全国人口普查研究项目

作者简介：

余吉祥(1981-),安徽安庆人,经济学博士,安徽科技学院副教授,南京大学应用经济学博士后流动站在站博士后。研究方向: 劳动力流动、城市与区域经济发展。

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