人口与经济

我国人口因素对二氧化碳排放的影响—基于STIRPAT模型的分析

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作者：马晓钰, 李强谊, 郭莹莹

单位：新疆大学经济与管理学院, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830046

关键词： STIRPAT模型;人口因素;二氧化碳;动态模型

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2013,34(1):44-51

摘要：

本文首先估算了1999~2010年我国30个省区的CO₂排放量,同时通过静态与动态面板数据模型相结合,运用工具变量控制了这两种模型的内生性,全面客观地对我国各省区人口规模、年龄结构、家庭规模、城市化水平与CO₂排放量进行了检验。研究结果表明:人口规模、城市化水平和年龄结构是推动我国CO₂排放的主要人口因素,而大的家庭规模可以抑制我国的CO₂排放;此外,收入水平、能源消费结构、产业结构也是影响我国CO₂排放的其他重要因素,动态面板数据模型表明,上一期CO₂排放量对当期CO₂排放量存在明显的正向关系。

This paper estimates the CO₂ emissions of China's 30 provinces (municipalities) from 1999 to 2010,tests the relationship between population size,age structure,household size, urbanization and CO₂ emissions with the combination of static and dynamic panel data model. Meanwhile,we use the combination of static and dynamic panel data model. Meanwhile,the use of instrumental variables to control the endogeneity of the two models. The results show that population size,urbanization and age structure are the major factors promoting China's emissions,and large family size can curb CO₂ emissions. In addition,income levels,energy consumption structure,industrial structure also affect CO₂ emissions. And the CO₂ emissions of last period have significant impact on the emissions of current period.

基金项目：

教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(11JJD850005-2);新疆创新管理研究中心基地项目(010112B05);新疆大学世川良一项目(XJU-SYLLF11010)

作者简介：

马晓钰(1978-),女,回族,新疆巴州人,新疆大学经济与管理学院副教授、新疆大学经济研究所副所长,经济学博士。研究方向:人口、资源与环境经济学。

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