人口与经济

性别失衡下的人口流动与艾滋病传播风险—基于风险选择的元分析

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作者：刘慧君¹, 李树茁¹, 马克·费尔德曼²

单位： 1. 西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院, 陕西西安 710049;
2. 斯坦福大学, 莫里森人口与资源研究所, 加利佛尼亚斯坦福 94305

关键词：性别失衡;失婚男性;艾滋病传播;流动人口;风险选择

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2012,33(6):16-24

摘要：

中国性别结构严重失衡,受婚姻挤压的失婚男性被视为中国未来公共健康与安全的最大隐患。为识别该群体,特别是流入城市的失婚男性对艾滋病传播的作用,基于风险选择视角,对2000年以来涉及中国男性流动人口的实证研究严格筛选,最终确定12篇文献,进行农民工与农村居民风险性差异、风险性行为与人口特征关系的元分析。结果发现,流动显著提高了男性多性伴侣和商业性交易的风险;未婚、较高收入的农民工,商业性交易或多性伴侣的风险增加,感染性病几率也明显提高;而且在年龄偏低、教育和收入水平相对偏高的样本中,未婚男性流动人口的多性伴侣和商业性交易风险更大;而在未婚比例超过一半的样本中,教育、收入上的风险选择性消失。这意味着未来失婚男性将放大艾滋病传播风险,且风险随该群体的聚集而快速提高。

China has experienced serious gender imbalance.To identify whether the impending forced bachelors, especially those who migrate to cities, will amplify the risk of HIV spread, the sexual risk difference between migrants and their rural counterpart, and between different subgroups of migrants were assessed using meta-analytic methods.A systematic literature review was carried out of studies published since 2000 that include the sexual risks for HIV in male migrants of china.Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria.The findings showed increased risk of having multiple sexual partners and engaging in commercial sex among male migrants.The unmarried male migrants with higher income were found more likely to engage in risk behaviors and STDs infected.And the association between marriage and sexual risk was stronger among the samples of lower mean age, higher average income and education.In addition, the risk selection on education and income disappeared in the samples of more than half unmarried.These implicated that the upcoming forced bachelors will be great dangerous to HIV spread, especially when they gather in cities.

基金项目：

国家哲学社会科学基金重大攻关项目(08&ZD048);陕西省哲学社会科学基金项目(10H019)

作者简介：

刘慧君(1975-),女,山东莱芜人,西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院副教授,管理学博士。研究方向:社会人口与公共政策

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