人口与经济

生产与人口的集中促进了经济增长吗?—来自日本的经验和教训

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作者：陈利锋¹, 范红忠¹, 李伊涵²

单位： 1. 华中科技大学经济学院, 湖北武汉 430074;
2. 北京劳动保障职业学院, 北京 100029

关键词：汇率变化;经济增长;过度集中

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2012,33(6):70-76

摘要：

中国城市化进程与日本存在较大的类似:生产与人口不断向大城市集中。因此,日本城市化的经验教训对于我国具有重要的意义。那么,生产与人口的集中真的会带来经济的增长吗?本文采用相关数据对日本的情况进行了经验研究,结果发现生产与人口的过度集中对于日本经济长期衰退存在较强的显著性作用;而汇率的变化对于日本的经济衰退却不存在显著作用。因此,我国城市化过程应吸取日本的教训,适度控制大城市规模和支持中小城市的发展,将有利于促进我国城市化的良性发展。

China's urbanization process is similar to Japan:production and population concentrate in big cities.So the lessons from Japan may be helpful for us.Is over-concentration of production and population helpful for growth? The empirical analysis in this paper shows that over-concentration has significant correlation with Japan's recession in the long time.And the change of exchange rate has insignificant negative effect on Japan's recession.The result argues that, China should control the scale of big cities reasonably, and support the development of medium and small-sized cities in the process of urbanization.

基金项目：

作者简介：

陈利锋(1982-),湖北黄冈人,华中科技大学西方经济学博士研究生。研究方向:货币理论与政策、贝叶斯计量经济学、结构宏观计量经济学

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