人口与经济

人口老龄化的区域经济效应分析—基于新古典经济增长模型

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作者：包玉香

单位：山东师范大学经济学院, 山东济南 250014

关键词：人口老龄化;区域经济效应;新古典经济增长模型;减速效应

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2012,33(1):1-7

摘要：

人口老龄化与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性。因为生产和消费是区域经济发展中的重要环节,而人口老龄化对生产和消费均有影响,也就必然会影响区域经济的发展。因此,本文首先在梳理国内外相关研究的基础上提出人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应—正效应和负效应;然后以新古典经济增长模型为基础,尝试引入人口老龄化因素从而对该模型进行扩展,分析得到的结论是:①进-步验证了人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应的存在;②不同的区域,人口老龄化程度不同,人口再生产所处于的发展阶段不同,人口老龄化对区域经济发展的经济影响程度,即其正效应和负效应之和也就不尽相同,但存在的一个基本规律是,人口老龄化程度越高,其负效应就越大,其对区域经济发展的减速效应也就越明显。

Population ageing is an important and realistic problem to be confronted by human society in 21 century which has an intrinsic relationship with regional economic growth.Because production and consumption are important fields in regional economy,population ageing both has influence on production and on consumption and necessarily has effects on economic development. Therefore,through the review of related document literature at home and abroad,this paper has put forward that population ageing has dual effects on regional economic development which are positive effect and negative effect.This paper tried to extend the model by adding the factor of population ageing.By applying with the extended model,1)it verified that there exists double effect for population ageing to regional economic growth;2)it found that population ageing has different economic impact because different region is on the different stage of population reproduction with different degree of population ageing,but there is a basic law that, companied by the deepening of population ageing,the negative effect of population ageing will become more and more obvious which means that the speed of regional economic development will gradually slow down because of the retarding effect of population ageing.

基金项目：

山东省软科学项目(2009RKB294);国家自然科学基金项目(40171024)

作者简介：

包玉香(1972-),女,山东蓬莱人,山东师范大学经济学院博士、副教授,研究方向:人口经济学、区域经济学。

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