人口与经济

生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长

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作者：陈仲常¹, 马红旗²

单位： 1. 重庆大学贸易与行政学院, 重庆 400044;
2. 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院, 重庆 400044

关键词：生育率;劳动力供给;人力资本积累;经济增长

分类号：C92-05

出版年,卷(期):页码：2011,32(6):1-8

摘要：

通过内生化劳动力和人力资本,以Q-Q理论为基础,根据生育率在劳动力供给和人力资本积累中的联动关系以及劳动力供给转型规律,利用动态最优控制原理,解释了殖民解放以来发展中国家先上升后下降的人口再生产过程及经济效应。结果表明:生育率的最优路径呈倒"U"型;整个路径存在两个鞍点均衡,只有当人力资本积累跨越某个"门槛值"时,第一个鞍点均衡才能过渡到另一个鞍点均衡;均衡的产出水平与劳动力折旧率成正比,与人力资本折旧率成反比。

In this paper,through endogenous labor and human capital,based on Becker's Q-Q theory,according to fertility rate in the joint relations of labor supply and human capital accumulation and the transformation law of labor supply,and use of dynamic optimal control theory,it explains developing countries increased and then decreased in the country's population reproduction process and economic effects since the colonial liberation.The results showed:the optimal path of fertility rate inverted "U" type;this path exists two saddle points equilibrium,and only when human capital accumulation strides over a certain "threshold",the first saddle point equilibrium transits to another saddle point equilibrium;equilibrium level of output is proportional to the labor depreciation rate,and inversely proportional to human capital depreciation rate.

基金项目：

作者简介：

陈仲常(1949-),女,重庆人,重庆大学贸易与行政学院、重庆大学人口资源环境经济与管理研究中心教授,博士生导师,牛津大学经济统计学院、美国俄勒冈大学访问学者,研究方向为宏观经济分析与预测

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