人口与经济

区域人口抚养负担的评价方法与实证分析

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作者：程前昌

单位：湖北民族学院生物科学与技术学院, 湖北恩施 445000

关键词：抚养负担;评价方法;抚养负担数量指数;抚养负担质量指数

分类号：C921

出版年,卷(期):页码：2011,32(5):87-92

摘要：

针对常用人口抚养负担评价方法的缺陷,构建了抚养负担数量指数和抚养负担质量指数,以便科学反映区域人口的抚养负担。并选取中国为实证对象,进行了有效验证。研究表明:从抚养负担数量指数看,除城镇外,农村和全国的抚养负担都在减轻;从抚养负担质量指数看,农村、城镇和全国的抚养负担都在大幅度减轻。相关分析显示中国非劳动人口比重下降的根源在于农村非劳动人口比重的减少,不过减小人口抚养负担的关键在于增强劳动人口的创收能力,并非仅依赖于非劳动人口比重的下降。

This paper constructs a set of new evaluation model,which can be described as dependency burden quantity index(DBQTI) and dependency burden quality index(DBQLI).The two proposed indexes provide a dual perspective on the evaluation of regional dependency burden.With China as a case study,the research indicates that the quantity of rural and nationwide non-laborers reduced obviously during 1978~2009,but the rural-urban and nationwide quality of life all increased notably.However,rural migrant laborers are hardly to enjoy a stable working environment,the result is salary unstable and easily intermittent unemployment,and peasants are made more vulnerable for survival in contrast with townspeople in china.The root of reducing the proportion of China's non-laborers is the transferring of rural surplus-labor,while the decisive driving force for reducing dependency burden lies in enhancing the capacity of wealth income rather than merely lower the proportion of non-laborers.

基金项目：

作者简介：

程前昌(1983-),重庆长寿人,湖北民族学院生物科学与技术学院助教,研究方向为人口地理与文化地理、城乡发展规划与区域发展规划

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