人口与经济

我国21世纪东、中、西部人口家庭老化预测和对策分析

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作者：曾毅¹, 王正联²

单位： 1. 北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心, 北京 100871;
2. 杜克大学人口健康和老龄研究中心, 美国NC 27710

关键词：东中西部;人口家庭老化;区域差异

分类号：C913.6

出版年,卷(期):页码：2010,31(2):1-10

摘要：

本文应用多区域多维家庭人口预测新方法对我国东、中、西部部分城乡人口家庭老化的模拟分析表明,如果迁移人口绝大多数是年轻人的年龄分布长期不变,我国21世纪人口家庭老化最严重的"重灾区"在中部地区,其次是东部。我们建议实行鼓励年轻迁移者携老年父母迁往城镇定居的政策,以避免中部地区(包括城乡)和各地区农村人口家庭老化程度太高的严重后果。如果在东、中、西部因地制宜,平稳实施城乡二孩晚育软着陆,老化程度将有所改善。

This study presents the projection and policy analysis on population and households aging in 21 century in Eastern,Middle and Western Regions of China. The results show that,if the age pattern that almost all rural-urban migrants were young people observed in 2000 census remains unchanged,the Middle region will have the most serious problems of population and households aging,and the next serious aging region is the Eastern part. We suggest a policy of encouraging family migration including old parents from rural to urban area in order to void the over-aging problems in rural areas. We also suggest a regionally differentiated smooth transition to a universal two-child fertility policy.

基金项目：

国家自然科学基金管理学部重点项目(70533010)

作者简介：

曾毅(1952-),江西人,北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心教授,博士生导师,杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心教授,研究方向为健康老龄化和家庭人口动态分析。

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