人口与经济

宝鸡市城区老年人口住院医疗需求测算

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作者：张思锋¹, 刘庆²

单位： 1. 西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院, 陕西西安 710049;
2. 西安交通大学医学院第一附属医院, 陕西西安 710061

关键词：城市老年人口;住院率;住院医疗需求

分类号：C913.6

出版年,卷(期):页码：2010,31(2):45-52

摘要：

本文运用分要素人口预测方法对宝鸡市分年龄、分性别老年人口的规模、结构逐年变动趋势进行预测。依据宝鸡市城区人口比重及老年人口住院率数据,计算出宝鸡市城区老年人口住院人数。通过概念操作化并建立指标体系,构建出老年人口住院医疗需求的测算模型,应用模型预测了2009~2030年宝鸡市城区老年人口的住院医疗需求。

This article has predicted a variation tendency in size and structure of the elderly population with the different age and different gender year by year in Baoji County by using Cohort-component method. Based on the proportion of the population and hospitalization rates of elderly population in Baoji urban area,the number of the elderly in-patients has been calculated. By conceptualization,index system and model for calculation on medical demand for the elderly in-patients can be established. Based on the model,medical demand for the elderly in-patients in Baoji city area from 2009 to 2030 has been calculated.

基金项目：

国家社会科学基金项目资助(07BRK004)

作者简介：

张思锋(1952-),陕西渭南人,西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院教授,副院长,博士生导师,研究方向为社会保障统计与精算。

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