人口与经济

人力资本、人口变动与经济增长

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作者：葛小寒, 陈凌

单位：浙江大学经济学院, 浙江杭州 310025

关键词：经济增长;人力资本;人口变动

分类号：C922

出版年,卷(期):页码：2010,31(1):15-20

摘要：

本文在Lucas模型基础上,构建了一个人力资本、人口变动和经济增长模型,并分别利用1997~2004年全国30个省区市以及东部12个省、中部9个省、西部9个省的面板数据,使用固定效应模型对理论模型的预期结果进行了实证检验,发现人力资本、贸易开放度对经济增长具有显著正效应,而人口增长率、FD I与经济增长的关系则具有不确定性。这些结果可在一定程度上解释我国区域经济发展中存在的差距。特别值得指出的是,回归结果并不支持在东部发达地区率先尝试放松生育控制政策的观点。

On the basis of Lucas model,this paper constructs a model consisting of human capital, population change and economic growth.Then,we ilse the panel data of 30 provinces,12 eastern provinces, 9 middle provinces,and 9 western provinces respectively during 1997-2004 to test the theoretical model applying fixed-effect model,and find that there is a significant positive correlation between human capital or trade opening degree and economic growth,but the correlation between population growth or FDI and economic growth is ambiguous. In a sense,these results Can explain the gap in regional development. In addition,the result of the model doesnt approve the standpoint that we should firstly relax the Family Planning policy in the eastern regions.

基金项目：

作者简介：

葛小寒(1970-),土家族,湖南古丈人。浙江大学经济学院博士研究生,主要研究方向为国际技术转移理论、人口经济学。

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