人口与经济

经济发展与劳动力迁徙的空间实证研究

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作者：顾佳峰

单位：北京大学中国社会科学调查中心, 北京 100871

关键词：劳动力迁徙;空间计量经济学;空间误差回归模型

分类号：C922

出版年,卷(期):页码：2007,28(6):35-39

摘要：

有关劳动力迁移的研究及相关政策的制定与执行,向来为世界各国所重视,各国都希望通过乡村发展等措施来缓和乡村人口移入城市,或是把大城市人口分散到郊区或偏远地区,以求区域间的均衡发展。本文用空间计量经济学方法,分析2000年中国各县劳动力迁徙情况,研究发现迁入地经济越发达,人民生活水平越高,工业越发达,未来发展潜力越大,吸引的外来劳动力也越多。研究还表明,中国劳动力迁徙具有显著的空间集聚效应,采用空间误差回归模型要明显优于OLS回归模型。

In the research, labor migration of China in 2000 was studied in a perspective of spatial econometrics. It was found that in areas with more developed economy and industry, with people living in a better condition, and with brighter future, the scale of labor migration to there will become larger. Moreover, this research found that as labor migration of China has significant space conglomeration effect, Spatial Error Model is fitter to analysis of this phenomenon than OLS model is.

基金项目：

作者简介：

顾佳峰(1975-),男,浙江舟山人,北京大学中国社会科学调查中心讲师,管理学博士。主要研究:空间经济计量学、人口与经济、教育人力资源开发、产学研合作等

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