人口与经济

性别对"4050"失业者的失业持续时间和再就业机会的影响—运用生存模型对厦门市失业者的经验研究

下载PDF阅读器

作者：魏立萍

单位：厦门大学财政系, 福建厦门　361005

关键词：失业持续时间;再就业机会;非参数法;COX半参数法;生存函数

分类号：F241.4

出版年,卷(期):页码：2007,28(5):35-38

摘要：

本文应用生存模型中的非参数法和COX半参数法, 经验分析了性别对厦门市"4050"失业者的失业持续时间与再就业机会的影响。经验分析结果表明, 性别对"4050"失业者的失业持续时间与再就业机会具有比较显著的影响, 男性的平均失业持续时间为21.7个月, 比女性的16.9个月长4.8个月, 其再就业机会是女性的0.674倍。本文认为"4050"劳动力再就业市场上的阴盛阳衰现象在于"4050"劳动力再就业市场上男性的工作机会及接受工作的概率低于女性。因此, 转变就业观念, 择业不挑肥拣瘦, 是促进再就业和构建和谐社会的重要途径。

By employing nonparametric and Cox parametric method in our analysis of the data collected from those unemployed who are at the age of 40-50 ("4050" unemployed)in Xiamen, this paper analyzes the effect of gender on these people's unemployment durations and re-employment opportunity.It has found that the effect is statistically significant.Male's average unemployment duration is 21.7months, about 4.8 months longer that females (16.9 months), while male's reemployment opportunity is about 0.674 times of that of females.This may be because females are more adaptable than males to their jobs.It suggests that policies should be made to encourage people to change their traditional understanding of jobs.

基金项目：

厦门大学王亚南研究院2005科研资助计划资金的资助。

作者简介：

魏立萍(1967-),女,山东茌平人,厦门大学财政系副教授,经济学博士,主要研究方向为劳动经济学、人力资本与经济增长理论、财政宏观政策等。

参考文献：

[1] Ronald G.Ehrenberg, Ronald L.Oaxaca.Unemployment insurance, duration of unemployment and subsequent wage gain[J].The American Economic Review, 1976, 66(5):754-766.
[2] Robert Moffitt, Walter Nicholson.The effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment:the case of federal supplemental benefits[J].The Review of Economi cs and Statistics, 1982, 64(1):1-11.
[3] Dale T.Mortensen.Unemployment insurance and job search decisions[J].Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 1977, 30(4):505-517.
[4] Mark Dynarski and Steven M.Sheffrin.The behavior of unemployment duration over the cycle[J].The Review of Economi cs and Statisti cs, 1990, 72(2):350-355.
[5] Simon Appleton, John Knight, Lina Song andQingjie Xia.Labor retrenchment in China determinants and consequences[J].China Economic Review, 2002, 13(2-3):252-275.
[6] 马骏, 今村弘子, 赵国庆.北京市下岗职工的再就业分析[J].经济学(季刊), 2004, 3:(3).
[7] Nichollas M.Kiefer.Economi c Duration Data and Hazard Functions[J].Journalof Economic Literature, 1988, 26(2):646-679.
[8] David R.Cox.Partial Likelihood[J].Biometrika, 1975, 62(2):269-276.
[9] Dale T.Mortensen.Job search and labor market analysis[A].Orley Ashenfelter and R.Layard.Handbook of labor economics[C].Amsterdam:Elsevier science publishers, 1986.

欢迎阅读《人口与经济》，您是本文的第位浏览者。